Saturday, August 27, 2016

Cody Latimer poised for a break out year

Cody Latimer was drafted 56th overall in 2014 to step in as the third receiver behind Sanders, and Thomas. Since then things haven't seemed to go his way. He has 8 career catches for 82 yards and 1 td in two years and spent that time primarily in Peyton Manning's doghouse. Not exactly what the Broncos planned when they selected the 6'2 215 lb wide out.

However despite his draft pedigree he has stepped up on kick off teams racking up 5 tackles on special teams last year. Which basically gave him a leg up on other receivers on the roster this off season.

At first it seemed like Latimer was on the bubble but he quickly began to click with Seimian and ultimately got a lot of praise for his performances, which carried through to the preseason where going into tonight's game he had 9 receptions for 111 yards both first on the team. He again contributed in week 3 with another big catch that went for 26 yards, while also adding kick returns to his resume. If I had to guess Latimer is on track to break out this season as the third receiver and possibly replace Sanders opposite of Thomas in 2017.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Should Broncos consider releasing Sanchez?

With the all important third preseason game approaching Trevor Seimian was named the starter and the team has yet to name the second team qb for the game. Speculation has begun that the Broncos would go from Seimian to Lynch if Seimian was hurt or played poorly in the regular season. The $4.5 million Sanchez is garunteed if he is on the roster on week one isn't much even in terms of a backup quarterback but if you expect to pass him over for the job anyway, and Lynch plays well with the second unit do you then release Sanchez and look at the waiver wire after preseason?

Some experts have said turning to another journeyman backup makes no sense but if you could get a guy who is experienced but essentially a third quarterback at a veteran minimum why not choose that path? Some familiar names might wind up free agents come the week 4 of the preseason. A few guys to watch are Christian Ponder who was signed to compete for the third string qb with the 49ers. The team seems to really like his competition and he is a young developmental guy which could prove to be useful for Chip Kelly. However Ponder has looked the part in his limited action going 7-8 for 86 yards 1 td, 0 ints, and added 2 carries for 21 yards and 1 td in front of none other than the Broncos. Who watched Sanchez play poorly and play a part in two turnovers. Ponder spent time with the Broncos as a third qb last season so he has some knowledge of the playbook.

Another guy to watch is Zac Dysert. Dysert was beaten out by Seimian last year for the third job but was drafted by the Broncos in the 7th round in 2013, and spent his first two seasons, and three training camps with Denver. He played in 6 preseason games during that time.

As a rookie he totalled 12 of 23 for 179 yards and 1 td as well as 5 carries for 20 yards.

In 2014 he displayed much better accuracy and decision making, ultimately completing 12 of 18 passes for 106 yards 1 td, and 0 ints, 6 carries for 6 yards.

In 2015 he played in very limited action throwing just 9 passes completing only 3 for 23 yards 0 TDs, 0 ints. He spent the season bouncing from practice squad to practice squad going from Chicago, to Houston, to Buffalo.

In 2016 he signed with the Dolphins and has displayed mobility and solid accuracy. He has played in all three games. He went 4 of 8 for 60 yards, 1 td, 0 int, and 3 carries for 1 yard in the first two games. He came off the bench second against the Falcons, and went 6 of 7 for 57 yards 0 TDs, 0 ints, adding 4 carries for 18 yards 0 TDs. He however lead the team to 10 points in two drives. So if you're keeping track in his 7 total games he has 37 completions, 65 attempts, 425 yards, 3 TDs, 0 ints, 18 carries for 45 yards.

Granted he only spent 1 off season with Gary Kubiak as a guy who can come in as a third string qb with knowledge of the system, and familiarity with the organization as well as the traits he looks for in a quarterback, accuracy, mobility, decision making, and ability to avoid turnovers, I think Dysert in his 4th season would look like a solid option to fill that role.

There is also the outside chance that Geno Smith winds up a free agent, granted he is a guy who is at a cross roads in his career but he could be a guy the Broncos could look at as a low risk backup with some upside. As of right now Smith is more or less in a battle with Bryce Petty a qb drafted by the current GM and coach, where as Geno Smith was not. Smith definitely checks the box in terms of mobility having run the fastest 40 yard dash of the combine in 2013 a 4.56 which puts him roughly on par with the average for wide receivers and cornerbacks typically the fastest guys on the field. He also stands 6'3 220 lbs and has solid arm strength. I have always thought he would thrive in an offense that relied on moving the pocket and keeping defensive linemen on the move while giving his receivers more time to get open. While his overall sample size isn't terribly impressive his most recent game was impressive enough to warrant a look in the capacity the Broncos would ask of him. He played one game last year Completing 27 of 42 passes for 265 yards 2 TDs, 1 int while being sacked 3 times. He also ran 2 times for 34 yards. He showed quite the chemistry with bigger receiver Brandon Marshall who caught 9 passes during the game which could bode well for his chances in Denver when he has guys like Demaryius Thomas, Cody Latimer, Cooper Taylor, and Virgil Green.

They could also explore the trade market looking at a couple Browns QBs in Josh McCown who would be an attractive option again because of his mobility and ability to move the pocket. He also brings unique experiences. He started his career as the franchise qb in Arizona, eventually bottomed out in the league and was even coaching high school football for a year before latching on as a backup in Chicago where he ultimately turned a string of games into a career resurgence that led to him signing with both the Buccaneers and Browns to compete for the starting job. He also has a history of learning playbooks quick.

The other guy who could be had cheap if McCown is kept would be Austin Davis, another mobile guy who's game is all about mid range accuracy which is ideal for an offense like Denver runs. He also brings a younger option at only 27 years old. He began his career with the Rams as a third string qb and didn't appear inna game until 2014 his third year in the league. He wound up playing in 10 games starting 8 and playing well. He completed over 63% of his passes for 2001 yards, 12 TDs, 9 ints, adding 16 carries for 36 yards. He was also sacked nearly three times a game and didn't have a run game or the talent at wide receiver the Broncos have to lean on. The very next season he was with the Browns where he played in 3 games starting 2 completing just under 60% of his passes for 547 yards 1 td, 3 ints, 7 carries for 33 yards. With 13 games and 10 starts under his belt he would walk in as the most experienced qb in Denver.

Another cheap option but extremely valuable backup would be Aaron Murray. Murray has yet to take a regular season snap but is in his third season with Kansas City in a three way competition for third string with Tyler Bray and rookie draft pick Kevin Hogan. Murray holds the most value between Bray and Murray which would make sense for the Chiefs to explore trades with. Hogan is likely to be kept on the roster and Bray likely could be stashed on the practice squad. Murray however likely would get claimed on waivers and result in no compensation for the team. The Broncos are obviously always looking for an advantage over a rival and having a few former Chiefs players to coach them up on the playbook never hurts.

While I see the logic in not letting Sanchez go honestly even if you believe that he would last on the market until after week 1 there is logic to releasing him, it essentially removes the garuntee on his contract, then you could potentially resign him to a lower salary for a year or two and stretch out the cap charge and helping the team in the long run. There is value in having a veteran around the young QBs even if he doesn't play. However there are other options.

Saturday, August 20, 2016

The curious case of Dak Prescott

The Cowboys found out the hard way last season that insurance at the quarterback position can be the difference between a division title or a top 5 pick. Romo broke his collarbone twice last season missing 12 games. The Cowboys struggled with a combination of Brandon Weeden, Kellen Moore, and Matt Cassel. To make matters worse this is the third straight season that Romo has missed at least 1 start, and has just 4 seasons with 16 starts in his career. He has two seasons in which he missed 10 or more games.

After suffering through 3 different quarterbacks throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, the Cowboys then curiously passed over drafting a guy like Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, and Connor Cook. Ultimately they drafted the 8th quarterback selected in the 2016 draft, in the 4th round. Dak Prescott was regarded as a project when he was drafted, siting his footwork, pocket poise, and quickness through his progressions as weaknesses. Many believes he is essentially a more proready version of Tim Tebow. Despite comparisons to a former first round pick he was projected between the third and fourth rounds and was a solid value when he was selected.

Despite drafting Prescott, and bringing back Kellen Moore, and Jamill Showers, owner/GM Jerry Jones lamented passing on drafting Paxton Lynch, and had an affinity for Johnny Manziel. Dak Prescott brushed off his owner's comments as if they were nothing but motivation. Then things looked even more bleak when the veteran of the three, Moore, suffered a significant injury. All of a sudden more talk of signing another quarterback sprung up. Nick Foles was on their radar until he signed in KC, rumors had it that they inquired about Josh McCown, and considered an offer for Glennon. Then the preseason hit.

Two games later you would think Dak Prescott was the savior of the Dallas Cowboys. In his preseason debut he completed 10 of 12 passes for 139 yards and 2 TDs, along with a 154.5 passer rating, then his second game he led the team on 6 scoring drives including 2 rushing TDs, and 2 passing TDs. He completed 12 of 15 passes for 199 yards adding 28 yards on the ground. Bringing his totals after two games to 22 of 27 for 238 yards, 4 TDs, 0 ints, 5 carries for 41 yards and 2 TDs. Now the rumors are that the Boys are happy with their qb situation and that Prescott will enter the season as the top backup behind the oft injured Romo.

In his third preseason game he entered on Dallas's fourth offensive play after Tony Romo left with what appeared to be a back injury, something that has plagued him in the past. Dak responded with another solid performance 17 of 23 for 116 yards 1 td, 1 int, adding 2 carries for 12 yards. He led the team to what should have been three scoring drives if not for a 52 yard field goal miss by Dan Bailey. You can already feel the difference in situations from last season to this year. Fans didn't seem to panic when Romo went down, likely trusting in Dak to lead the way, and keep a playoff caliber roster afloat until Romo comes back.

Update: reports have come out that Romo will miss 6-10 weeks with a broken bone in his back. Dak Prescott was named the starter already. No word yet if Cowboys are exploring veteran options for a backup. Kellen Moore likely will be placed on IR to make way for a new qb.

Monday, August 8, 2016

Making a Case for a Joey Bosa Trade

Joey Bosa's mother just came out saying the 3rd overall pick in 2016 should have "pulled an Eli Manning" and requested a trade immediately after being drafted by the Chargers. Despite a huge lack of a pass rusher, and a desperate need to claw their way out of the depths of the AFC in a tough division, the Chargers have remained steadfast in their belief that for the first time under the new rookie wage scale the 3rd overall pick needs offset language in his contract. Seems kind of silly to me that a team that needs this player more than anything is playing hardball on something that otherwise would be common practice.

As it stands this is already the longest hold out of a rookie since 2009 when Michael Crabtree held out into the regular season ultimately signing in October. If his family members are already saying they don't want to be there and this holdout is dragging out with no communication there is some sense to trading Bosa to a team for a first round pick. It's a unique circumstance in that many teams could use the addition of Bosa but few would see the sense in making a trade for anything more than a mid first round pick or combination of picks with similar value. Try as they might even Bosa himself couldn't try to convince teams he was ready to sign a deal immediately after a trade so he could get started in training camp and learn the playbook.

The question then becomes what is the market for Bosa? I would look at established playoff caliber teams looking for a defensive spark, or teams about to make the leap hoping to take the next step needed to get there.

First: New England Patriots;
Why would the Patriots target a guy like Bosa? First of all his scheme versatility, Bosa at 6'5 269 lbs he could stand up as a 3-4 OLB, or put his hand in the dirt as a 4-3 end. He is also versatile in the sense that he is a solid run defender already to go along with his ability to rush the passer. The Patriots have never stuck to base defense and play a lot of odd alignments which could ultimately prove valuable to Bosa to find a mismatch and go with it.

Second of all the Patriots produced 49 sacks in 2015, nothing to sneeze at but they also parted ways with 12.5 of those sacks in Chandler Jones who now plays for Arizona. Dane Fletcher, Darius Flemming, also left a few vacancies at LB. Now some guys have been signed, namely Chris Long, Shea McClellin, and Frank Kearse, however none of these guys have topped 5 sacks since 2013, and Long is getting up there in age a bit. Long is also a similar body type and skill set to Bosa and could prove to be a perfect mentor.

Third: Depth; injuries decimated the linebackers for the Patriots last season with Jamie Collins missing 4 games, Dont'a Hightower missing 4 games, and Dane Fletcher landing on IR. To make matters worse reports are out that Rob Ninkovich another guy who plays a similar role as a defensive end/LB tore his triceps meaning he will likely at very least land on IR recall. This would be the time for the Patriots to strike. Trade a first round pick in 2017 for a guy who can start in Ninkovich's absence and potentially out play him as a rookie as well as ultimately replacing Chandler Jones.

Second Team: Cleveland Browns

First of all the Browns defense scares no one as it sits, their perceived top pass rushers are 3-4 defensive ends which aren't usually known for getting after the qb. Their top three OLB's totalled 4.5 sacks last season. Adding a guy like Bosa would immediately inject some playmaking ability into this defense.

Second their depth at the position is questionable. Barkevious Mingo is a guy who was a boom or bust pick a few years ago that has since been surpassed on the depth chart by solid but not spectacular Nate Orchard who had 3 sacks last season. They have drafted the heir apparent to old man Paul Kruger in Emmanuel Ogbah but having a solid OLB rotation is key to a 3-4 defense as shown by Denver last year.

Third reason to pull this off? The trades they made this season during the draft In two trades in the first round they managed to collect an extra first, second and two third round picks in 2017, as well as another 2018 second round pick. They believe in getting the most value from their draft picks and it could be perceived that if Bosa could be had for a mid first round pick in 2017 they would be getting a top 5 talent for far less than a top 5 pick value wise.

It's beginning to sound like there are more reasons and suitors for a trade than there are reasons to continue negotiation with Bosa.