Friday, April 30, 2021

Saints Stockpiling Passrushers?

In 2018 led by a 39 year old Drew Brees the New Orleans Saints traded up in the first round going from #27 overall to #14 overall by shipping Green Bay their 2019 first round pick, and 2018 5th round pick, in addition to the swap of picks in the first round. The type of trade that would typically signal that a team is about to select a quarterback. 

With the 14th overall pick the New Orleans select Marcus Davenport DE. Wait what? The Saints gave up a first round pick, and a fifth round pick to draft a defensive end that up to that point had not been highly rumored to be a top 20 pick. This move paired Davenport with Cameron Jordan their pro bowl defensive end. Providing the Saints with a solid pass rush, even if the cost was way higher than most would have paid. Since then Davenport hasn't exactly lived up to the hype costing 3 draft picks will bring, he has produced just 12 sacks, 4 tipped passes, and 4 forced fumbles through 37 games. 

Fast forward to the 2021 draft. This time Drew Brees has retired, Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston have both been resigned to short term deals, and neither player is a lock to be the face of the offense as of yet. Due to another playoff season the Saints select 28th overall, but they have 9 picks on the books for 2021 including 2 third round picks and 2 seventh round picks. Making for another situation in which the Saints could have targeted a quarterback with a trade up. Except this time they stood pat, and watched as the five quarterbacks regarded as first round worthy were selected by 15 overall. Would they do the unthinkable and reach for Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, or Davis Mills? No they would of course select Payton Turner. A defensive end that as of yesterday I had never even heard mentioned as a second round pick. 

Turner is a 6'6 269 lb defensive end from Houston. As a Freshman in 2017 he appeared in 8 games but produced just 14 tackles, 2 for a loss, 1 sack, and 1 int as a rotational pass rusher. As a sophomore he played in 11 games racking up 42 tackles, 3.5 for a loss, 0 sacks, rebounding as a junior with 33 tackles, 7.5 for a loss, and 3.5 sacks. His best production came in 2020 in an injury and covid shortened season he played in 5 games, logging 25 tackles, 10.5 for a loss, and 5 sacks. He displayed power, agility, and explosion at his proday with 23 reps on the bench, a 4.25 short shuttle, and 35.5 inch vertical. He is regarded as positional versatile in a way most teams only dream of. He says himself he is most comfortable as an OLB in a 3-4, but has also lined up as a hand in the dirt defensive end, and even inside as a defensive tackle. The Saints however already have a Jordan who is very similar in that ability. 

So why would the Saints spend a third first round pick on defensive end in just 4 years? Quite simply I believe they intend to shift Cameron Jordan inside more often. There are several reasons for this belief on my part. First let's start with the most obvious reason, they traded away Malcolm Brown, and allowed Sheldon Rankins walk in free agency. By drafting Turner they now have Davenport, Turner, Carl Granderson (5 sacks in 2020), Noah Spence, and Tanoh Kpassagnon at defensive end to rotate to allow Jordan a 6'6 286 lb defensive end to now play primarily at tackle as he gets older, and loses some quickness. Moving Jordan inside more often next to David Onyemeta who had 6 sacks on the interior last season should provide more pressure inside only further allowing Turner and Davenport to wreak havoc from the outside. 


Friday, April 23, 2021

Playing Devil's Advocate

So this offseason it seems this is the first time in recent memory that we have basically known what position would go in the top 3 picks, then following that most people have a group of players they expect to go top ten including Penei Sewell, Jamar Chase, Rashawn Slater, Kyle Pitts, DeVonta Smith, Patrick Surtain Jr., or Jaycee Horn. Which in all likelihood most of these guys will go in the top 10 as expected however what if trades for the other two quarterbacks, or for a tackle shook up the draft order?

So if we are looking at the draft order as it sits we have:
1 Jaguars
2 Jets
3 49ers
4 Falcons
5 Bengals
6 Dolphins
7 Lions
8 Panthers
9 Broncos
10 Cowboys

So as I mentioned before the vast majority of people expect Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields to come off the board in that order in the top 3. However I think in order for trades to occur Fields needs to drop. So hypothetically here we have the 49ers banking on upside and drafting Trey Lance at 3. 

With Justin Fields and Mac Jones on the board now, Atlanta starts getting calls for the number 4 pick with a couple teams clamoring to draft Fields. Denver, Chicago, and New England are involved but ultimately it's New England that goes up to 4 to get Fields. This trade requires them to give up their 15th pick this year, as well as their first rounder next year and a 3rd this season. Now we have had 4 qbs fly off the board. 

At number 5 the calls to trade up for a quarterback have all but died out. However that doesn't stop a couple teams for calling about the pick to select Penei Sewell, however the Bengals need offensive tackle help badly so they select Sewell themselves and kick Jonah Williams to RT with Reilly Reiff moving to swing tackle or inside to guard. 

Number 6 overall the Miami Dolphins had been hoping to land Sewell, but with him off the board they decide to draft weapons for their young QB. They greedily snatch up Jamar Chase their top receiver on the board. 

At number 7 Detroit needs wide out help like I need a stack of cash, however in a Leap of faith Denver ships Detroit a 3rd round pick in this year's draft to go from 7 overall to 9. Denver then uses their 7th overall pick to select Rashawn Slater who will replace Juwaan James at RT after he essentially opted out of football the past 2 seasons after signing a large contract. 

Number 8, Carolina had been planning on selecting Slater but with Denver's trade instead they decide to slide back down the draft board. Chicago is there still in search of a QB with Mac Jones on the board. Chicago is only 12 slots lower at number 20 overall but it still costs them a 2022 first round pick, and a conditional 3rd round pick in 2022 on top of the 20th overall pick. Mac Jones is the heir apparent to Andy Dalton in Chicago. 

At number 9 Detroit slid 2 spots down and still is able to get the guy they wanted in WR DeVonta Smith. Smith will come in and help replace the 4 wideouts that left in free agency. 

At number 10 overall the Cowboys can't resist the temptation that is Kyle Pitts. They need a tight end but it's far from their biggest need. However what Jerry Jones wants he gets. Pitts becomes Dak's new favorite tight end by 2022. 

Even in this scenario the guys dropping are at cornerback because of the premium nature of QB, WR, and T. However in another scenario both Denver and Dallas take cornerbacks at 9 and 10, Detroit trades down with Chicago instead, and Mac Jones goes 7th. At that point you have 5 qbs, Sewell and Chase as the only players off the board with Slater going to Carolina, Surtain to Denver, and Horn to Dallas. Leaving Smith and Pitts to fall..

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Aldon Smith deserves a lifetime ban

Aldon Smith is a name that elicits many reactions when it is muttered, however the first thing that comes to mind for me is wasted potential. Aldon Smith was drafted 7th overall in 2011. The same draft that brought Cam Newton and Von Miller to the NFL. These three players will always be tied together in my mind due to the way their careers began. Cam Newton was regarded as the most out there personality with the way he dressed, acted, and sometimes talked or interacted on social media, Von Miller was outspoken, energetic, but had his share of issues early on. Then there was Smith. Smith had come out of high school a 6'5 234 lb two way player who shined as a defensive end while also seeing time on offense as a tight end, after a senior season that saw him rack up 60 tackles, 21 for a loss, 12 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, 1 blocked punt, 1 safety, 34 receptions for 570 yards and 4 tds earning himself the distinction as the 5th rated prospect in all of Missouri at the time regardless of position. He also came out of high school with no reports of off field issues. He was the quietest of this trio, and arguably the safest pick. 

In college Smith again produced at a high level with little to no reports of any off field issues. He decided to forego his final two years of eligibility to pursue a career in the NFL. After having entered college as a redshirt freshman, he was a 2 year starter who racked up 79 tackles, 23 tackles for a loss, 14.5 sacks, 1 interception and 58 return yards, 5 tipped passes, and 1 forced fumble in 23 games. As if his production wasn't impressive enough, he managed a combine that would leave a lasting memory. 

Just 3 seasons removed from a reported 4.68 40 yard dash at 234 lbs, Smith had bulked up to 263 lbs in an effort to stand up to better competition at tackle at the college and NFL level. Despite carrying nearly 30 more pounds on his 6'5 frame, Smith ran the 40 yard dash in 4.72 seconds, he managed to display explosion with a 34 inch vertical, 118 inch broad jump, 1.66 10 yard split, and 2.70 20 yard split. His agility was on par with most linebackers, and top of the charts among most defensive end prospects, his size allowed him to be projected as both unlike his counterpart Miller who was an OLB with zero doubts about it. His strength left something to be desired with only 20 reps on the bench press leading some teams to lean toward lining him up as a strong side linebacker in a 3-4 defense. One of those teams, would wind up being San Francisco at #7 overall. Smith was drafted with the intentions of playing him at LB more often than not and as a down lineman on 3rd downs. At the time the 49ers were led by John Harbaugh, but his defensive coordinator was Vic Fangio the master of deploying linebackers in a manner that suits their talents. He also had Jim Tomsula at DL coach, and Jim Leavitt who had been coaching LB's since the 80's to lean on during his early development. 

Aldon Smith came out on fire as a rookie. Fangio had a veteran group in front of Smith with Navarro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Patrick Willis, and Parys Harrallson who were starting meaning Smith would come off the bench, however he would play as much as some starters at times and his playing time paid off for the 49ers to the tune of 37 tackles, 14 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 recovery, 4 passes tipped despite not starting a single game. In year 2 the 49ers named him a starter and in his first 32 games he had already racked up 103 tackles, 33.5 sacks, 5 tipped passes, 1 interception, 5 forced fumbles, and 1 recovery putting him in the record books for most sacks in the first two seasons of a career. Harbaugh and company were pumped thinking they had the makings of a championship level defense. However 2012 would still have a few events that were concerning to say the least. On January 29th, 2012 Smith was arrested on suspicion of DUI, after a court hearing the charge was reduced to reckless driving, which ultimately led to no punishment by the NFL. In June of 2012, Smith had a party at his house, (hey at least he wasn't driving right), while trying to break up a fight Smith is stabbed twice, and 2 other people leave with gunshot wounds. 

In 2013 after 3 games Smith had 4.5 sacks and was well on his way to competing for the league lead in sacks again, until September 20th when he was involved in a single vehicle incident. Most look at that and say single vehicle incident?? But how? Well intoxication played it's part of course, he was found to be under the influence of and in possession of marijuana, something the NFL frowned upon heavily at the time. Ironically enough his former draft class rival Von Miller was also dealing with a marijuana related suspension. (More on that later) Smith decided his best course of action at the time was to check into rehab, which might have looked like the right move at the time for the player and the team, I believe this should have been viewed slightly differently... While I applaud Smith for seeking help I believe this showed the world this was not just a young kid partying after a strong start to his 3rd NFL season, this was a man struggling with addiction. Five weeks went by and Smith returned in week 10 as a backup before starting again in week 13. Having played in 11 games starting 8 Smith managed to remind the 49ers why he was worth the trouble tacking on 4 more sacks from week 10 on to bring his yearly total to 8.5, add on his 34 tackles, and 1 forced fumble and recovery, and you can see why there was still optimism around Smith.

It was shortlived however, and for due reason. After a little over a calendar year since the incident at his home, 3 felony charges are filed against Smith. The lawsuit accuses Smith of owning illegal assault weapons, and firing into the air during the party. These charges however were announced while Smith was in rehab which only hurt the image he was building in the NFL. Smith turned himself in on October 29th, 2 days later the 49ers make a bold move and activate him to their roster. Showing faith in a very troubled player. On November 12th Smith pleads not guilty and sets a court date for January 15th allowing him to finish out that 2013 season we just discussed. At this point many other teams would have cut bait, Smith owed this team some form of success after all this. I don't believe a successful bomb threat was what they had in mind but alas that is what Smith rewarded them with. On April 13th 2014 Smith is arrested and booked for a bomb threat after being randomly chosen for a TSA screening. 5 days later the 49ers suspend Smith indefinitely. 

So for anyone keeping score:
1 bomb threat 
2 DUI's 
3 felony weapons charges

Alright back to our story:
On May 21st Smith pleads no contest to his 3 felony charges, and 2 misdemeanors for driving under the influence. He is scheduled for sentencing July 25th. 

His sentencing was moved up a week to the 18th of July. During sentencing his criminal record prior to his time in the NFL paid off with the judge reducing his felonies to misdemeanors. He is set to serve 2 twelve day sentences in jail that run concurrently, along with 3 years probation, $4,000 in fines, and banned from liquor stores and drinking alcohol for the 3 years. The NFL responds by suspending him for 9 games to start the 2014 season. 

From August 29th to November 13th Smith stayed relatively under the radar. He stated to the press he no longer needed alcohol in his life, yet another statement that should have struck listeners as a precursor to more future issues but I guess rose colored glasses make the world look great. 

Just over a month later a report that teammate Ray McDonald was accused of sexual assault came out. In this allegation the woman stated she had been drinking with McDonald and Smith earlier that day. Smith and his agent vehemently denied this because of course this was a violation of his probation, and a terrible look for a player trying to rehabilitate his image in the press. At that point he may as well have been the one being accused of the misconduct, because all anyone could talk about was Smith being involved in another police related incident. It's as if you could count on him for 2 police related events each year after his rookie year and it looked like he was making all the wrong choices to get back on track. Throwing parties, drinking with teammates who later are accused of sexual assault, and worst of all violating probation in the midst of a 3 year term that could send him to jail if he doesn't get his life straight. 

On March 6th 2015, Aldon Smith restructured his contract to benefit the team and make it more risk free to keep him. He converted much of his salary to incentives. Further entrenching how much he had riding on his successful recovery.

On August 7th 2015, Smith proved this was no easy demon for him to fight and was again arrested and booked on suspicion of DUI, hit and run, and vandalism. This would later result in 3 misdemeanor charges, and his subsequent release from the 49ers. 35 days later on September 11th Smith was signed by the Raiders despite an impending suspension and a rap sheet that was quickly growing. As if that day wasn't eventful enough his 3 misdemeanor charges were filed. 

9 games into the 2015 season Smith is again suspended this time for a full year. He started 7 games in 2015 racking up 28 tackles, and 3.5 sacks. Add this to the 15 tackles and 2 sacks he managed in 2014 his play on the field had shown the time away was taking its toll. In 16 games, with 13 starts Smith had just 43 tackles, and 5.5 sacks a far cry from his production his first 3 seasons. 

Heading toward a year long suspension the Raiders kept Smith in their plans long term hoping he would be able to return full time by the 2017 season. However what ensued next is one of the most bizarre comeback trails I have ever seen. 

April 4th 2016 Aldon Smith is resigned by the Raiders in a sign of good faith toward his eventual reinstatement and firmly planted the team's support behind him. 

On July 24th 2016 a man and a woman release a periscope video of them smoking marijuana, evidence suggests this man was Smith. Smith spends the next day denying these rumors then 4 days later checks into rehab again. At this point this man has violated probation at least once that we know of, and was accused of two others. He has three DUI's, 2 stints in rehab, a bomb threat, 3 misdemeanor weapons charges, and many other instances of downright poor judgement and yet still had the support of the Raiders. 

3 months later in October Smith requests reinstatement having exited rehab a second time saying he now had a strong hold on his life and would create no further distractions. The NFL reviewed everything and ultimately, and justly denied his reinstatement. This began a 3 year struggle for Smith yo show he deserved to be on an NFL field. 

Late January of 2017 reports come out that the 49ers would be suing Smith for just over $300,000 that he was ordered to repay but never did. This led to a belief that Smith was now broke and didn't have the means to pay this remaining money owed. 

In Februrary Smith was placed under investigation based on reports of a domestic violence incident. He was not arrested and was reported to be cooperating with police which helped public opinion of the incident. 

Less than 1 month later Smith was a passenger in a vehicle driven by his girlfriend who struck a police patrol vehicle. It was later found both Smith, and his girlfriend were intoxicated. This would amount to a second documented probation violation. In September it is reported Smith managed a plea deal to once again remove a DUI charge from his record this time pleading guilty to hit and run instead. 

In February of 2018, Smith asked for his child support payments to be reduced further cementing the belief he was out of money and desperate for an NFL return.

In March of 2018 Smith is involved in a another domestic violence incident. The woman said he drank two bottles of tequila, bit her, then escaped from her window to drive back to his home in Oakland. 2 days later he turns himself in. A week after that he pleads not guilty once again. 11 days later Smith is arrested for violating a protection order the woman had placed against him. This woman at the time was reportedly Smith's fiance. 

This time after countless arrests, 3 seasons out of the NFL, losing his fiance, battling with addiction and arguably intense mental health issues it seemed Smith had possibly gotten his life back on track. He was sentenced for his domestic violence case, given two more misdemeanors, (I need to know who this dude's lawyer is), and was sentenced to 3 more years probation, and 90 days in jail that were to be served in an inpatient drug and alcohol treatment center.

It wasn't until April 1st, 2020 that the Cowboys, America's team of escaped convicts, signed Smith to a 1 year deal. Being that it was on April 1st I thought it was a cruel joke to play on poor Smith, however I should have known better this is the Cowboys after all. At this point it was a leap of faith because the NFL had not reinstated Smith, nor had he reapplied as of yet. Ultimately the NFL always the sucker for a redemption story reinstated Smith. He would go on to play in 16 games for the Cowboys without incident, he had 48 tackles and 5 sacks. In my mind not enough to warrant any team believing they would get preaddiction Smith back at any point.

After a long wait for a contract on the open market Smith signed a 1 year deal with the Seattle Seahawks. The once all pro 3-4 LB would be again putting his hand in the dirt as a true defensive end the same role he filled for Dallas. However just 2 days removed from signing his deal Aldon Smith did it again. Police have issued a warrant for Smith's arrest following second degree battery of an alleged acquaintance of Smith which lends itself to the fact that this is not a case of mistaken identity like we recently saw with Aaron Donald. No unfortunately this is Aldon Smith being Aldon Smith, showing he is unhinged, unwilling to change, and at this point most likely relapsing in his addiction. I would be shocked if alcohol is not involved in this altercation. More importantly this is now the 4th time Smith has violated probation and needs to be treated as such. He needs a lifetime ban from the NFL, and a strict judge that stops slapping him on the wrist and starts legitimately punishing a man who has become more than a repeat offender. He has shown this is who he is now. If this man wasn't an NFL player would he even be walking free right now? 




Friday, April 9, 2021

What options does Denver have at QB?

It was no secret the Broncos were heading into this offseason seeking a way to upgrade from the play they have received under center for the past 5 seasons. However after losing out on the bidding for Mathew Stafford the Broncos have yet to make a move, but at this point what options remain on the board? 

Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Mathew Stafford, Carson Wentz, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Mitch Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Jameis Winston, and effectively even the 3 of the top 5 draftable quarterbacks have all found homes at this point. Meaning Denver is left with very few if any options. Let's take a look at the very few viable free agents left. 

Nick Mullens is in my opinion the best quarterback still available. He was not tendered by the 49ers, instead they opted to replace him by resigning Josh Rosen, and signing Nate Sudfeld. However I don't believe this is an indictment on Mullens talent. I believe he is a guy who simply needs someone to work on a few key points regarding accuracy and decision making to make him a clutch starting quarterback. Perhaps Pat Shurmur is that guy. 

Alex Smith is now 37 years old, and essentially was told his previous team didn't want him to return after a gruesome leg injury. However he told them to shove their advice, came back, and actually started games. He played in 8 games having last appeared a game in week 10 2018. Obviously Smith comes with one main caveat, his mobility which was once a huge part of his game will never be what it once was, and he should be regarded as strictly a pocket passer at this point. To me signing Smith only makes sense as a mentor and backup to Lock. Smith is past his ability to be a full time starter but would be perfect for a team like Denver that needs a QB that can help teach Lock, and if needed step in when he can't perform. 

This is pretty much it on the open market however with so much movement at QB, it made certain players available for the right price if Denver is inclined to pick up someone other than Smith or Mullens. 

First off is Teddy Bridgewater, who likely could be had for a 4th round pick or less. The Panthers just acquired Sam Darnold trading away 2nd and 4th round picks in 2022, and a 2021 6th round pick. Meaning they would be thrilled to acquire some draft capitol in exchange. However Denver bowed out on trading for Darnold believing he wasn't a big enough upgrade over what they had in Lock, so I would be surprised to see them determine Bridgewater is an option unless he is simply cut. 

Gardner Minshew might be the best of this bunch. He is headed into his 3rd year having played in 23 games. Throwing 797 passes completing 501 for 5,530 yards 37 tds, 11 ints, 6.9 yds per attempt, qbr 93.1, however he has knocks on his delivery time, resulting in 60 sacks in only 23 games. He has 96 carries for 497 yards, and 1 td but again has fumbled 18 times losing 11. However if you can help him learn to get the ball out faster, and get him better protection and weapons which I believe Denver has in place he could be the perfect competition for Lock for the price of a conditional 5th round pick. 

Nick Foles, the man who can only seem to play well when wearing an Eagles jersey, could also be available after the Bears were so unimpressed they resorted to signing Andy Dalton to be their starter. Foles will also not be headed back to Philly where former Bronco Joe Flacco stepped in. However he did actually play halfway decent last year. The Bears had this weird back and forth thing with Trubisky going on at first until they finally just stopped turning to Foles. I think you could pry him from Chicago for a 5th round pick. 

Jimmy Garrappollo is on the squarely on the trade block but rumor is the price is a first round pick which Denver will likely not be willing to pay for a man who isn't avast upgrade over Lock if an upgrade at all. I still think he lands in New England or Houston after the dust settles on draft day but Denver does make some sense if they can get him for a 3rd this year or a conditional 2nd in 2022.

Marcus Mariota is a guy I think I am higher on him then the rest of the NFL. His athleticism will always intrigue me, despite the fact that his career has not turned out to be what we all hoped. However I believe with the right coach, and system he would be great. Maybe Shurmur is that coach. Keep in mind Shurmur was the offensive coordinator under none other than Chip Kelly when Mariota was drafted. At the time the Eagles were trying to trade up to acquire Mariota but fell short instead telling with Nick Foles, and Sam Bradford. Maybe now it's time for Denver to make the low risk high reward move and trade a 4th round pick to Las Vegas for Mariota. Maybe you even include Jeff Driskel in the trade so Las Vegas can acquire another backup QB. 

As you can see the options outside of the draft aren't exactly the best to hang your hat on unless of course you want to mortgage your future to go get Deshawn Watson, Russell Wilson, or to a lesser extent make a trade up from 9 to 4, to select the 4th best qb. Or you roll with Drew Lock, maybe select a right tackle so you can move on from the biggest waste of free agent money on the planet Juwan James.