Saturday, June 26, 2021

Brian Johnson future head coach?

Brian Johnson is a young guy so I'll forgive you if you haven't heard of him. However I would assume after his resume of developing quarterbacks in college. At 34 years old Johnson started coaching at just 23 years old. Despite a very strong college career as the successor to Alex Smith at Utah frequent injuries toward the end of his college days helped him go undrafted. He tried out with Green Bay but didn't make the roster. Ultimately landing with the New York Sentinels of the UFL. When he was released by the Sentinels Johnson seemingly saw the writing on the wall and used his sharp quarterback's mind to transition to coaching. 

Make no mistake Brian Johnson should be at the very least recently retired from the NFL as a player, not one of the men who's career never took off. Johnson played in 41 total games over a 5 year stint at Utah that included 1 redshirt season. In those 4 years where he saw action, he completed less than 65% of his passes just once in 2005 his first year as the full time starter...his career low in this category?? 63.5% an impressive feat. When compared to the man he replaced, Alex Smith who was drafted first overall, Johnson stacked up well. 

Alex Smith played in 25 career games completing 389 of 587 passes or 66.3% for 5,203 yards with an 8.9 average per attempt. He had 47 tds and 8 ints. Adding another 286 carries for 1,072 yards or 3.7 per carry and 15 tds, and 3 receptions for 38 yards as well.

Brian Johnson 41 career games completed 673 of 1,017 passes or 66.2% for 7,853 yards a 7.7 yard average. 57 tds, 27 ints, adding 366 carries for 848 yards and 12 tds. 

Obviously Smith displayed a bit more mobility, and his lack of interceptions helped him big time. Perhaps it was the coaching? Urban Meyer served as the head coach in 2003, and 2004 for Alex Smith with offensive coordinator Mike Sanford. In 2005 Meyer left for Florida, and Sanford left for UNLV, while defensive coordinator Kyle Whittingham took over as head coach bringing with him offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig, another fan of the spread system albeit without the reliance on the read option. Ludwig was an accomplished coach that had been in the college ranks for 10 years as a coordinator with 5 different programs and coached nearly every offensive position up to that point. However, just 4 years after Smith went first overall Johnson was an after thought not even having been invited to the combine. Honestly I believe this dramatically hurt him. Of the 21 quarterbacks invited to the combine there were 11 drafted. Of the 10 undrafted rookies, Chase Daniel, Brian Hoyer, Mike Reilly, John Parker Wilson, Hunter Cantwell, Drew Willy, Nathan Brown, and Rudy Carpenter. Leaving just 2 that weren't. Just 5 quarterbacks signed that weren't invited to the combine. After really looking at his statistics, and considering the fact that he understands offense at a higher level it's a shock to me that he isn't on an NFL roster somewhere as a number 2 quarterback. However he decided to transition into coaching at 23 years old instead returning to Utah. 

Kyle Whittingham knew firsthand how smart Johnson was and how well he understood the game having chosen for 4 years to start him as his quarterback until he graduated in 2009. So he immediately hired him as his quarterbacks coach for the 2010 season. He would take over for Dave Schram who was seemingly being fazed out slowly. In 2009 he served as offensive coordinator/QB coach, in 2010 he transitioned to co-offensive coordinator/tight ends coach, in 2011 he coached only running backs, and by 2012 he was no longer with Utah after 8 seasons. This actually kind of helped Johnson's rise within the program. In 2011 Johnson held the QB coach title again, before being given the title of offensive coordinator in 2012 after the one year experiment of Norm Chow failed. So just three seasons into his coaching career, just three seasons removed from being the starting quarterback Johnson headed into 2012 as the offensive coordinator and QB coach at just 25 years old. So how did he fare?

About as well as his predecessors at Utah in the coordinator position had...he was gone by 2014 accepting a job with Mississippi State as a quarterbacks coach. During the 2012 season Johnson oversaw 4 different quarterbacks playing games due to injury. None of which completed less than 60% of their passes, they combined for 16 tds and 9 ints, and 2,263 yards. He also helped running back John White to 1,041 yards and 8 tds on just 218 carries. Backups Kelvin York, and Lucky Radley added 322 yards and 4 more tds, while QB Travis Wilson added 4 rushing tds of his own. In 2013, the QB play was atrocious. Travis Wilson was named the starter, but completed just 57% of his passes, threw 16 tds to 16 ints, and 1,827 yards, while backup Adam Shulz played even worse. Completing just 48.7% of his passes for 1,008 yards 6 tds and 5 ints. He also didnt offer the athletic ability of Wilson who ran 81 times for 386 yards and 5 tds this time, while Shulz managed 75 yards and 1 td. In the run game they had a 3 headed monster. James Poole, and Kelvin York split carries totalling 1,070 yards and 8 tds, Lucky Radley chimed in for 284 yards and 2 tds, while another 3 players logged 1 rushing td a piece. The biggest development was WR Dres Anderson, who had a career year with 52 receptions, 1002 yards 7 tds through the air, as well as 8 carries for 30 yards and 1 td. When he moved on to Mississippi State is when he started to take notice. 

At Mississippi State Brian Johnson tutored a quarterback who he will now face twice a year as a member of the Eagles coaching staff. That player is Dak Prescott. It wasn't until Johnson arrived that Prescott's career took off. In 2013 Prescott completed less than 60% of his passes, did not top 2,000 yards passing, and had 10 tds to 7 ints. In 2014, and 2015 Prescott and Johnson teamed up to produce an NFL level stat line. 

14:61.6% completion rate, 8.7 yards per attempt 3,449 yards 27 tds and 11 ints. 210 carries for 986 yards and 14 tds, 2 receptions 35 yards and 1 td. 

15:66.2% completion rate, 8.0 yards per attempt 3,793 yards 29 tds and 5 ints. 160 carries for 588 yards, 10 tds. 

As we know Prescott has turned out to be a pretty damn good NFL player too, dare I say we as Eagles fans are actually envious of the consistency he has shown. Johnson parlayed Prescott's success to take a coordinator and QB coach position with Houston. 

In Houston he would coach future NFL players Josh Jones an offensive tackle drafted in round 3, Patrick Carr an undrafted RB, Marquez Stevenson a WR drafted in round 6, and Kyle Allen a QB who also resides in the NFC East with the Washington Football Team, as well as Steven Dunbar a CFL WR with the Hamilton Tiger Cats. Johnson stayed just one season here, before Dan Mullen again recruited him this time to join him in Florida as a QB coach.

Johnson spent the next 3 seasons as the QB coach adding offensive coordinator in 2019. During his 3 seasons he oversaw the development of future second round pick, and potential Tom Brady successor Kyle Trask, who was often regarded as one of the top 7 quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL draft. During his time at Florida he also tutored Felipe Franks, who went undrafted in 2021 but signed with the Falcons, and Emory Jones who is headed into his senior season at Florida. During his one season as a coordinator there he oversaw an offense that had 3 different players get drafted in the first two rounds with Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, and Trask went in the top two rounds. He also helped coach Trevon Grimes who was briefly in camp with the Eagles this offseason. 

Now in 2021 he starts a new challenge. Coaching up second year quarterback and superb athlete Jalen Hurts. Hurts will give Johnson a player that more closely resembles Johnson's own style of play during his playing days, at 34 years old he is about as old as his backup in the QB room Joe Flaaco. Behind Flacco they have another young but experienced quarterback with Nick Mullens being signed. Johnson has really solid talent to work with in Philadelphia and if he makes the most of it he should be seeing an elevation to coordinator at the NFL level in a matter of a few seasons. In fact Eagles fans should consider ourselves lucky if we hold onto this guy for 3 years. 

The college pipeline has helped many younger coaches move up the ranks fast before and Johnson should be no exception especially if Trask, Toney, and Pitts are as advertised when they start to see playing time. 


Landon Collins the linebacker?

Landon Collins is one of the highest paid safeties in the league, and deservedly so having played the safety role well during his time in New York which led him to a rather large free agent contract with his current team in Washington. However during year 2 with the team suffered a major injury causing him to miss 9 weeks. Playing in just 7 games, and having his share of struggles prior to injury Collins finished the year with career lows in tackles, 41, and passes defended with just 1, while contributing 2 sacks, 1 interception, and 1 forced fumble. All said it was a disappointing year for Collins who signed with the WFT having never had less than 88 tackles and 4 passes defended, with 3 pro bowls and 1 first team all pro selection on his resume coming from 2016-2018 the 3 year stretch prior to becoming a free agent. 

However during his absence rookie 7th round pick Kamren Curl a 6'2 206 lb safety from Arkansas took over and played much higher than his expectations. In 9 games he built a reputation for himself as a playmaker and steady contributor, and it started immediately once he stepped on the field. In his first start he led the team with 11 tackles, and notched his first sack. By season's end he had 88 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 passes defended, 3 interceptions, including one that he returned 76 yards for a touchdown. He arguably outplayed Collins, and Collins in turn was asked about it. When asked where he saw himself fitting into the defense after he recovered including a more direct question about a move to linebacker Collins scoffed at the idea saying "Not happening my man. I was drafted as a safety, I'm going to play safety. If someone wants to talk about lining me up at LB in packages we can talk but that's it." Ron Rivera to his credit said Collins doesn't speak for the team. Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio came out and stated he expects Collins to continue to compete at safety. 

However there are many reasons why a move to linebacker would make sense for Collins despite his reluctance to do so. Collins was drafted in 2015 as a 6'0 228 lb safety who had in college twice as a starter shown he was a tackling machine landing second on the team in tackles behind only Cj Mosley a former first round pick at MLB. Collins has since come into the NFL and watched as his tackle totals ballooned every year. Through his 6 year career Collins has had 88 or more tackles 5 times, he has 7 career sacks, 37 passes defended, 9 interceptions, 6 forced fumbles 3 recoveries, and 1 td. Although some of these stats are fairly misleading. Let me explain.

Landon Collins is undoubtedly a solid and consistent contributor, but his career stats are helped dramatically by a 2016 season that saw him set career highs in tackles, sacks, passes defended, and interceptions. His stat line through 16 games: 111 tackles, 4 sacks, 13 passes defended, 5 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 touchdown. Take away this season and his abilities in coverage suddenly become a lot less impressive on paper. The 7th year safety hit free agency the same year Cj Mosley did, which created an interesting situation where PFF actually published an article stating that Collins, not Mosley was the best off ball linebacker to hit free agency in 2019. PFF reasoned that Collins had played 804 total snaps in 2018, with only 109 of those snaps coming deep as a safety, while 549 of them came in the box or along the line of scrimmage. So despite Collins' insistence that he doesn't play linebacker it appears he plays it more often than he truly plays safety. Looking back Collins was used as a free safety as a rookie, before the Giants realized his value in the box in his second season. In 2016 they moved him to strong safety, allowing him to play in the box more and it resulted in his best statistical season of his career. However this is far from the only data to support the claim that Collins should move to linebacker. 

When you think of the highest paid linebackers in the league, you often see two categories of linebackers that see these rather large paydays. First are your pass rushers, with Khalil Mack, Von Miller,  Matt Judon, Za'Darius Smith, Chandler Jones, Bud Dupree, and Shaq Barrett as 7 of the 10 highest paid linebackers in 2020. None of these guys are known for much more than their prowess as pass rushers. While the 3 guys in the top 10 who aren't viewed as such are Cj Mosley, Bobby Wagner, and Deion Jones. Mosley is arguably the best true linebacker in the league, he is a tackling machine, he has the ability to rush the passer, and has demonstrated coverage abilities that are comparable to Collins. Wagner is another true linebacker, regarded for his versatility. He has been a stalwart for Seattle for a decade displaying ability to eat up ball carriers in the middle of the field, rushed the passer to the tune of 22.5 sacks, added a safety, 10 ints and a td as well. However Deion Jones is the man who closely resembles what I think Collins would be as a linebacker. Jones was a part of a movement in Atlanta under Dan Quinn to gain more speed on defense, in came Jones, and safety turned linebacker Keeanu Neal. Jones is 6'1 227 lbs, and while has had four 100+ tackle seasons in a 5 year career he is best known for his coverage abilities. But that's no surprise given in 5 years despite missing 11 games the man has racked up 38 passes defended, 11 interceptions with an insane 379 return yards and 5 tds. He is essentially the same player as Collins, just one that got to focus on playing linebacker and not dropping back as a safety. The thing is Collins could actually project to be a true linebacker because he is capable of rushing the passer as well, albeit his chances have been limited he ranked as the 10th and 11th best safety in terms of pass rush in consecutive seasons. Given more opportunity I don't think it would be out of the question to see him produce more sacks playing as a full time linebacker. Keep in Mosley has just 1.5 more sacks with 2 less games on his resume. 

Imagine a 3-4 defense with a starting lineup of:
DE Jonathan Allen
NT Da'Ron Payne 
DE Chase Young
OLB Montez Sweat
ILB Jon Bostic
ILB Landon Collins
OLB Jamin Davis 
FS DeShazor Everett or Troy Apke 
SS Kamren Curl 

That would put five first round picks on the field at the same time in Allen, Payne, Young, Sweat, and Davis. As well as Collins who was the 33rd overall pick. Bostic, Curl, and whoever wins the free safety job would be the only players who might line up in the box that aren't premier talent, and these guys aren't slouches. Washington would be smart to incorporate this kind of defense. Then when passing situations arise, you can go to a 4 down linemen set with Sweat, Young, Allen, and Payne, with Collins and Davis as the linebackers in passing situations with 3 CB's, as well as the two safeties. 

Honestly this would also allow for more exotic zone blitz packages as well. You could see Collins drop back as a deep safety while Curl or whoever plays free safety rushes the passer. I would also feel comfortable allowing Sweat, or Young to drop back in the occasional zone coverage allowing a combination of Collins, and some of the db's blitzing. I believe Collins might actually prove to be a better player as a linebacker full time, than he was a safety. As a linebacker his coverage duties will rarely include receivers, and likely consist mainly of running backs, and tight ends. This will put him at more if an advantage than when he originally came into the league and was asked to play safety. Really I think the resounding point I'm trying to make is that Collins is realistically physically talented enough to play 5 different positions on defense, and potentially even occasional snaps in the slot as a nickelback. This skillset should be used as a weapon, move him around the defense, attack opposing offenses, and utilize the best 11 players you have on the team rather than having to choose between Curl, and Collins put them on the field together at all times. 

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Ryan Fitzpatrick the definition of journeyman

Ryan Fitzpatrick has had an interesting career to say the least. The 34 year old who sports a huge beard, and has the type of personality that makes it hard for anyone to root against him. He is now on his 9th different team and expected to compete for starting time again with younger qbs on the roster. 

Many probably don't remember at this point that Fitzpatrick entered the league as a 7th round pick by the then St. Louis Rams from Harvard. He actually entered the NFL hyped as one of the smartest players to ever take the wonderlic test scoring a reported 48 out of 50 despite taking the test in just 9 minutes. The only player to ever score higher was another Harvard graduate. Fitzpatrick was just the 14th player drafted out of Harvard since 1967. Of those 14, 5 never made an NFL roster meaning Fitzpatrick simply by making the opening day roster became 1 of just 9 players to do so since 1967, and the only QB on the list to do so. Things would continue to be unusual for Fitzpatrick his rookie year. 

In year 1 he competed with Jeff Smoker to be the 3rd string qb behind starter Marc Bulger and veteran backup Jamie Martin. In week 6 Bulger suffered an injury, making Martin the starter and Fitzpatrick the primary backup, however by the end of November, Fitzmagic would put up his first big game. Coming off the bench in the second quarter he managed to lead the Rams back from a 24-3 deficit at halftime ultimately winning the game 33-27 in overtime having completed 63% of his passes for 310 yards 3 tds, 1 int and a 117.4 qbr. However he quickly follow the typical trend for his career and crash back to earth over his next 4 games. He ultimately wound up completing just 56% of his passes for 777 yards, 4 tds and 8 ints. For anyone keeping score that means he managed just 467 yards, 1 td, and 7 ints over his 4 starts. Not exactly what anyone expected after the hot start. He would finish his career with the Rams on the bench before being traded to Cincinnati in the middle of year 3 to back up oft injured Carson Palmer. 

Year 3, team number 2. After the Bengals surrendered a 7th round pick in exchange for Fitzpatrick he came into year 3 as the primary backup in 2007 but didn't see any time on the field. Heading into 2008 Fitzpatrick was a restricted free agent but signed his tender to return to the Bengals. Palmer missed several games due to elbow soreness on his throwing arm. Fitzpatrick came off the bench and somehow still ended up 3rd in the NFL for rushing yards by a QB. He managed 13 games, just under 60% completion rate, 1,905 yards 8tds and 9 ints adding 304 rushing yards and 2 tds. Not bad for his first year starting more than half a season as a 5th year former 7th round pick. Or at least that's what Buffalo must have thought. 

Buffalo came knocking on Fitzpatrick's door looking for a veteran QB that could help mentor 2nd and 3rd round picks in Brian Brohm, and Trent Edwards. He spent 2 seasons ahead of these guys before Buffalo moved on and brought in Tyler Thigpen, Vince Young, and Tarvaris Jackson over the next two years. None of which unseated Fitzpatrick. He played in 59 of 68 games over 4 seasons, completing just under 60% of his passes for 11,654 yards 80 tds, 64 ints adding 175 carries for 822 yards and 2 tds. However Buffalo fired Chan Gailey and with that decided to part ways with Fitzpatrick as well. Due to this he was released on March 12th, 2013 just before the draft. 

This marked the beginning of his stint with the Titans. At this point he was viewed pretty much as he is now, a veteran fringe level starter or top level backup. The Titans viewed him as insurance for the often injured Jake Locker. Ironically Fitzpatrick would wind up starting 9 games and playing in 11, more than Locker. He completed 62% of his passes for 2,454 yards 14 tds, 12 ints, 43 carries, 225 yards and 3 tds. Not mind blowing stats but not enough to warrant being released 1 year into a 2 year contract but that's exactly what happened. This is most likely because of another head coaching change from Mike Mularkey, to Ken Whisenhunt. Which left Fitzpatrick on the open market for the third time. 

Fitzmagic was a free agent for just 4 days signing with the Texans under new head coach Bill O'Brien. He was creating a competition between Case Keenum, Ryan Mallet, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and rookie Tom Savage. This was also when the Texans finally moved on from longtime starter Matt Schaub. Despite highs such as a 6 touchdown game against the team that abruptly cut him the Titans. He finished the season with 2,483 yards 17 tds, 8 ints and a 95 qbr. Coming off of one of the better seasons of his career it would have been no surprise to see him return to Houston, except this is Ryan Fitzpatrick we are talking about, and he was traded less that 1 year later to the New York Jets. 

A new era in his career, heading into year 11 and on his sixth team officially a journeyman, having started games for 3 teams in 3 years and was about to make it 4 for 4. He was asked to come in and compete with former 2nd round pick Geno Smith, who really stood no chance. Fitzpatrick was reunited with Chan Gailey who led him to success in Buffalo. He came through again and helped Fitzpatrick start 16 games completing just under 60% of his passes for 3,905 yards 31 tds, and 15 ints, adding 60 carries for 270 yards and 2 tds. His best season yet, and enough to lead the Jets to a 10-6 record. He would be handed the job again in 2016, which immediately led to another Fitzpatrick moment where he fell on his face. Despite playing in 14 games he completed just 56% of his passes 3% less than the previous season, that wasn't the only thing that dropped. His 31 td passes from last season? A distant memory by the time 2016 closed and Fitzpatrick had racked up 2,710 yards, 12 tds, and 17 ints, adding just 130 yards on the ground this year. However this drop in performance would mark the end of his tenure with the Jets. As you can imagine this season ended poorly with coordinator Chan Gailey, qbs coach Kevin Patullo, and Ryan Fitzpatrick all gone. This began a series of 2 year stints with various teams. 

At this point just to catch up with the overall picture of Fitzpatrick as a passer he is heading into his 13th season, having played for and started games with six different teams over that stretch. He had played the role of backup, competitor, veteran mentor, and unquestioned starter throughout his career, which helped him to some impressive career statistics that help showcase his ability to truly absorb and play in just about any scheme quickly. He had played in 127 games throwing for 25,888 yards 166 tds, and 133 ints. He had a win loss record of: 46-69-1, and had at this point sunken to more of a backup level quarterback due to his poor performance with the Jets. 

In 2017 the Buccaneers signed Fitzpatrick to a 1 year deal. signed as the backup to top overall pick Jameis Winston, behind Fitzpatrick this time was only undrafted rookie free agent Sefo Liufau who landed on the practice squad. Fitzpatrick would go on to play in 6 games putting up backup level stats in Koetter's offense finishing the year with 1,103 yards 7 tds 3 ints. 

In 2018 the Buccaneers decided to bring him back on a 1 year extension, again as the primary backup. However shortly after Fitzpatrick signed the first contract extension of his career, Winston was suspended 3 games leading Fitzpatrick to start games for the 11th straight season. He started off extremely hot with a 156.2 qbr after tossing 4 tds passes, a career high 417 yards and adding a rushing td. In week 2 Fitzmagic continued the run he beat the Eagles adding another 4 td, 400+ yard performance and a 144 qbr. 2-0 headed into Pittsburgh Fitzmagic was on fire, and the problem with gun slinging qbs who are on fire, they typically are overdue for a tough game. In this case Fitzpatrick threw 3 tds, with 3 ints to match, while again topping 400 yards becoming the first player to throw for 400 yards in 3 consecutive games. In week 4 he started again but the magic had worn off and this week he threw for just 127 yards and 1 int. Bringing his season totals to over 1300 yards, 11 tds to 5 ints through just 4 starts. Yet Winston returned and to the Bucs credit they stuck with the young guy which in my opinion was the right move for Winston's development as a player. However the faith was short lived as Winston was benched after throwing 4 interceptions against Fitzpatrick's former team Cincinnati. Fitzpatrick came on strong and led the offense to 18 unanswered points to tie up what had been a 34-16 affair. He would lose on a last second field goal but the job was his now....at least for a few weeks as Fitzpatrick was benched after throwing 3 ints. This would mark the last of his 8 games in 2018 totalling 2,366 yards, 17 tds 12 ints. Fitzpatrick's contract had ended and he would become a free agent after the 2018 season. It should come as no surprise that Fitzpatrick moving on was partially spurred by a coaching change. 


In 2019 Fitzpatrick was again asked to mentor a young former first round pick but at the same time was competing for the starting job with said player. Not exactly the correct environment for a mentor situation obviously. That team, and the player was the Miami Dolphins,and Josh Rosen. Ironically the poor play of both Rosen and Fitzpatrick led to several QB changes, and the eventual 3-13 record that gave them the #2 pick allowing them to draft Tua. In comes Tua, out goes Rosen. Fitzpatrick stayed for the 2020 season again intended to be a mentor to Tua as he learned. Fitzpatrick held the starting job for 7 weeks before moving on to the rookie, however they used a bizarre two QB system at times where Fitzpatrick would come in at the end of games to finish out the fourth quarter. It ended with Fitzpatrick playing in 9 games, with 7 starts setting a career high in completion rate with 68.5%, 2,091passing yards, 13 tds 8 ints, 30 carries for 151 yards and 2 tds, also logging the third reception of his career on a pass from himself after it was swatted by a Jaguars defender. It resulted in no gain but with that catch became the first player since Walter Payton to throw two touchdowns, rush for one touchdown, 20+ rushing yards, and a reception in one game. Fitzmagic seems to find ways to grace the record books even if he only plays average. In 2021 the Dolphins chose to move on from Fitzpatrick allowing him to head to his 9th team and replacing him with Jacoby Brissett. 

Fitzpatrick was easily one of the better free agent quarterbacks this offseason even though you never would have known, with all the talk of the guys who were available via trade, Matt Stafford, Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, or Deshaun Watson. However Washington was searching for a veteran option to compete with former Panthers Taylor Heinicke, and Kyle Allen. This might be his most interesting QB battle of his career yet.

On Washington's roster are Heinicke, and Allen, two quarterbacks that may not be the most polished or talented players but he has experience with them. Heineke first played for Ron Rivera in 2018 with Carolina. However Heinicke had started his career in 2015. Having gone undrafted he signed with the Vikings to compete with current QB coach for the Chiefs Mike Kafka. Kafka suffered an injury paving the way for Heineke to make the team. Heinicke spent the 2015, and 2016 seasons as the third string QB in Minnesota. After an injury settlement in September of 2017 he was waived and moved on to Houston where he attempted his first pass before suffering a concussion and ultimately being let go. This is when he finally latched on with Carolina. He went on to play in 6 games completing 61% of his passes for 320 yards 1 td, 3 ints. Adding 31 rushing yards on 6 carries. He was eventually injured, and sent to IR. This is when Kyle Allen stepped in for Carolina and begun to win the backup job. Heinicke would resign for the 2019 season but ultimately get cut and remained unsigned. In 2020 he was one of many who jumped into the XFL. He was allocated to the St. Louis Battlehawks and wound up backing up Jordan Ta'amu. This time with the XFL is basically what led to Heinicke being available when the time came for Washington to move on from Dwayne Haskins. Heinicke signed with Washington's practice squad in December was elevated to the roster 11 days later he wound up replacing Haskins who was benched in the 4th quarter of the game against the Panthers. Haskins was released the following day, leading to Heinicke starting the wild card playoff game. He completed 26 of 44 passes, for 1 td, 1 int, added 1 rushing td and helped lead the team to 23 points against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Bucs. He was resigned after the season. 

Kyle Allen was an undrafted free agent in 2018 starting his career with the Panthers and Ron Rivera on the practice squad before being promoted to the active roster. He made his first career start in week 17 against the Saints. He went 16 of 27 for 228 yards 2 tds and 1 rushing td paving the way for him to beat out Heinicke for the primary backup job in 2019. A job he would ultimately win pretty easily after his performance. This would be key as he would go on to make his first start of 2019 in week 3 after a shoulder injury shut down Cam Newton. This would result in Kyle Allen stepping as the QB1 until Cam got healthy. He would end up playing in 13 games. He threw 489 passes completing 303 for a 61.96% completion rate, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt for 3,322 yards with 17 tds and16 ints. Adding 100+ rushing yards and 2 more tds. Ultimately after the 2019 season when Rivera was fired he swung a trade for Allen to join him in Washington sending Carolina a 5th round pick. Allen came on strong in Washington starting 4 games after they benched Haskins. He would end up dislocating his ankle resulting in Heinicke being signed. During his 4 game stretch he completed 69% of his passes, for 7 yards per attempt, totalling 610 yards, 4 tds, 1 int, adding a rushing td. Extremely solid performance that showed he can cut down on turnovers the one knock on him as a starter. However if any team will give him a chance to continue his progression its Washington under Rivera where he has spent his entire career to this point. Allen was resigned to his restricted free agent tender and will compete in 2021. 

So we have two former undrafted free agents who both started games and gained a cult following in the process last year. They then go out and get the veteran Fitzpatrick who also has a significant group of fans rooting for him to take the job. This is by far the most interesting QB battle this offseason because while I expect Fitzpatrick to win, Allen and Heinicke are definitely going to be given an actual chance despite backgrounds that don't typically lend themselves to being a starter in the NFL. 

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

A look back at the selection of Noah Fant

It's 2019, and the Broncos are on the clock with the tenth overall selection starting at the possibility of drafting MLB Devin Bush, when the phone rings. It's the Pittsburgh Steelers and they want to trade up to select Bush themselves, a player they know Denver covets so they make a very aggressive offer, the Broncos accept and it forever tied several players' careers together.

The Broncos don't often trade down in the first round, so it came as a bit if a surprise that Elway and Russell pulled the trigger on this trade with Devin Bush on the board. However when you look at the terms and realize Denver dropped 10 spots, and picked up the 52nd overall selection in the 2nd round, and a 2020 3rd round pick to do so. The Broncos took some heat for the trade being that they had a gaping hole at MLB and had what some believed to be a generational LB on the board. However, Elway and company had their eye on another man on the board who wouldn't have made sense to pick at tenth overall, but would make a lot of sense to pick at number 20. That man was Noah Fant. 

Noah Fant is a 6'4 249 lb tight end who ran the 40 yard dash in 4.51 seconds, reaching over 18 mph in the process. He displayed explosion by putting up a 1.55 10 yard split, 2.61 20 yard split, and a vertical of 39.5 inches. He also displayed agility with a 6.81 in the 3 cone drill. When drafted he immediately entered the league as one of the best athletes in the NFL at the tight end position, which is why Elway was so enamored with him he knows the damage a receiving tight end can do first hand. In the eyes of many Broncos talent evaluators they had just drafted a generational talent at tight end to pair with their young quarterback. However there were definite questions about his ability to translate to being a starting NFL tight end due to his relatively limited production in college with 78 receptions, 1,083 yards and 4 tds. He primarily served as second fiddle to Tj Hockenson. The critics said that Fant wouldn't pan out as hoped, and Denver would be left with a bust who couldn't hold up as a volume receiver and was nothing more than a second tight end at best. Well Fant quickly proved the doubters wrong. 

During his college career he had high's of 39 receptions, 519 yards and 2 tds nothing to write home about. In year 1 of his NFL career he topped all three of those numbers with 40 receptions for 562 yards and 3 tds. He had issues at times with drops but ultimately progressed as the season wore on foreshadowing what was to come later in his career. Usually receivers take three years to have a break out year but, Fant had a dramatic uptick in his stats in 2020. The second year tight end seemed to develop a rapport with Drew Lock to the tune of 62 receptions, 673 yards and 3 tds. So already through 2 seasons in the NFL he has 102 receptions, 1,235 yards and 6 tds which has not only removed any thought of the bust label but has placed him in the conversation for up and coming young players in the league. 

The crazy and relatively unaccounted for part of this trade were the 2nd round pick in 2019, and the 3rd round pick in 2020. Now that we are a year removed from the 2020 draft we now know how those picks were used. In 2019 Denver packaged the 52nd overall pick as well as a couple late round picks to move up and draft Drew Lock with the 42nd overall selection, but they came out on the plus side of this trade in terms of point value assigned to the picks, meaning the Broncos were able to gain value by trading down, and again gained more value by trading up. They also brought in the QB they had their eye on in the first round at one point without having to give up exponential value to get him. In 2020 they used their 3rd round pick 83rd overall to select center Lloyd Cushenberry. So from this trade the Broncos gained their starting tight end, their starting quarterback and their 2020 starting center. It remains to be seen if Lock and Cushenberry can turn their young careers around as both played poorly in 2020 but the fact remains that the Broncos acquired 3 very valuable players to allow the Steelers to draft Devin Bush. These three men combined for 45 starts for the Broncos in 2020. 

Devin Bush however has essentially cemented the predraft evaluations that he was an absolute stud of a MLB. Although he missed 11 games in 2020 he still managed 24 tackles, 1 sack, and 3 passes defended. As a rookie he had 16 starts, 89 tackles, 1 sack, 4 passes defended, 2 interceptions 1 forced fumble, 4 fumble recoveries, and 1 touchdown. Showing he is the multifaceted player the Steelers had hoped for. If he can bounce back from his ACL tear in 2021 and put up similar numbers to his rookie year he will likely be looking at a Probowl nod, and start seeing the Steelers talking about extending his contract sooner rather than later. 

Long story short this trade is one that truly in my eyes was a win win situation. The Steelers value linebacker unlike any other team in the league so it made sense for them to invest all those picks in a guy who was arguably a can't miss prospect, even if it came at the expense of other positions because they had a very well rounded veteran roster. The Broncos were on the opposite end of the spectrum rebuilding their offense through the draft and relying on the extra picks to do so. In just two short drafts Denver drafted a starting tight end, a starting quarterback, a starting center, starting left guard, starting number 2 wide receiver, slot receiver, backup tight end, and more. The fact that two drafts produced 5 starters just on offense is unheard of.