Monday, September 16, 2019

Evaluating the backup qbs set to start for their teams

Two weeks into the season and we already have starting quarterbacks set to miss time. Sam Darnold of the Jets will reportedly miss 3-7 weeks with Mono, while Drew Brees is expected to miss time with a hand injury, Nick Foles is expected to miss at least 8 more games, and Big Ben may miss time with an elbow injury as well. Of these teams which one has the best backup quarterback situation to hold them over in the mean time?

In New York, Adam Gase brought in former Broncos qb Trevor Siemian. Ironically Siemian never overlapped with Gase in Denver but Siemian does have experience in Mike McCoy's system whom Gase learned under prior to becoming a coordinator. Siemian heads into Monday night with 25 starts under his belt from his time in Denver but he is also a year removed from regular season action. He has fared okay as a starter. Completing just over 59% of his passes, for 5,686 yards, 30 tds, and 24 ints. He isn't known as a running qb but he will run when needed. He has 60 carries for 183 yards and 1 td. However this is the same qb that was benched at times for Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch because of poor play, and sports a losing record. Perhaps Gase thinks Siemian can still develop into a solid qb over time. Of the four teams listed this has to be the third of the four. While Siemian can be adequate enough to start he will struggle with bouts of inconsistency and isn't a guy you want to rely on long term. Jets fans are likely hoping that illness recovery is closer to 3 weeks than 7. Behind Siemian the Jets have Luke Falk a second year qb who spent last season in Miami as the third qb, and was just promoted from the practice squad to backup Siemian. Update: In his first start since 2017 Siemian suffered an ankle injury that will end his season. Luke Falk took over but the Jets offense failed to push the ball upfield all game long finishing with negative passing yards in the first half. This situation is getting ugly fast.

Drew Brees hurt his hand and will see a specialist regarding the damage done. This is one of the few elite level qbs in the league that has a starting caliber player behind him , and possibly the only one who has a former probowl qb in Teddy Bridgewater. If not for a catastrophic knee injury Bridgewater might still be the Vikings starting qb. However his injury unleashed a chain of events that saw Case Keenum wind up the starter for a team that lost in the NFC championship game. Looking back his injury led to Keenum getting a starting job in Denver, and Cousins heading to Minnesota. But that's a subject for another day. Bridgewater brings with him 30 starts in 38 games including a post season start. He completed over 63% of his passes as a starter and racked up 6,268 yards, 29 tds, 23 ints. While adding 105 carries for 403 yards and 4 tds. He was known for his mobility prior to his injury, and he signed on in New Orleans as a chance to eventually replace Brees as the starter and his chance now sits in front of him in week 3 and beyond. Reports are Brees will miss a minimum of 6 weeks. Bridgewater is on aone year deal but this 6 week audition could spring board his attempt to become a starter again. After entering the week 2 match up he looked abit rusty completing under 60% of his passes for just 165 yards, 0 tds and 0 ints. I expect him to look more prepared in week 3, but I also expect Taysom Hill to see more time in the backfield as a passer now, unfortunately he will likely see less time as a gadget player as a result unless the Saints sign another qb. The interesting thing about this situation is all three qbs; Brees, Bridgewater, and Hill are on expiring contracts this year. Its fair to wonder if Brees decides to call it a career after an injury ravaged season. This is easily the best backup situation in the league right now, and the Saints have confidence in their players.

Finally the Jaguars, the poor Jags went out and spent loads of cash on former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles to start for a team that suffered through a long stretch if inadequate play from former first round picks Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles. Foles came in and looked the part comleting 5 of 8 passes for 75 yards and 1 td before getting hit by Chris Jones of the Chiefs and breaking his left clavicle. In came Garnder Minshew a rookie qb drafted in the 6th round. He had a very odd college backgroubd starting at East Carolina State, before graduating early and transferring to Washington State. In 30 collegiate games he completed over 65% of his passes for 8,263 yards 62 tds, and 20 ints. His statistics seemed to directly reflect the level of his supporting talent as his final season in college he completed over 70% of his passes for 4,776 yards, 38 tds, and 9 ints.  At 6'1 223 lbs and 23 years old I think the combination of his size, slightly advanced age, and collegiate background of losing drastically impacted his draft stock. With Foles set to miss 11 weeks Minshew has already finished out the first game and completed his first start. So far he has lit it up, completing 45 of 58 passes or 77.6% his passes for 488 yards, or 8.4 yards per attempt, 3 tds and 1 int. He also added 7 carries for 62 yards. While the Jags have lost both games he kept the Jags in week 2 losing by just 1 point. The defense hasn't helped him much either with zero turnovers. The Jaguars brought in Joshua Dobbs via trade to backup Minshew making this the third best situation. Minshew is the xfactor here. Currently my faith in him is growing by the game but its hard not to be skeptical of him falling back to earth at some point. After all the entire league passed on him through five rounds.

In Pittsburgh reports are that Big Ben will under go surgery on his elbow and miss the remainder of the season. While he is no doubt entering the end stages of his career he came out and said he intends to honor the contract extension he signed this offseason that keeps him on the team until 2021. However in this situation I wonder if former 3rd round pick Mason Rudolph's play could change the narrative. Drafted where he was the thought was that he was primed to be the backup qb for a few years until he took over the starting job when Big Ben stepped away. Now he has 14 more games to add to his impressive debut when he threw for 112 yards, 2 tds and 1 int in one half of football. Rudolph had strung together enough solid preseason performances that the Steelers elevated him to the top backup spot before ultimately trading Joshua Dobbs,  to the Jaguars, who once sat in front of him. I wonder if the Steelers are regretting that trade now. They promoted practice squad qb Delvin Hodges to backup Rudolph, however I expect them to look for veteran help. I am curious if they make a play to sign Landry Jones who recently became the first player to sign an XFL contract. Rudolph could play himself into a starting job this year or lead to the Steelers spending another high draft pick on a qb next season to develop behind Rudolph like he did with Dobbs. I rate this situatuion as the second best being that Rudolph has had a year and a half of NFL experience on this team, learning under virtually the same coaches. Hodges while originally a practice squad player I believe can be a solid backup qb but things could get ugly if he is forced into action. Update: The Steelers have added former first round pick Paxton Lynch to their practice squad.


To recap if you are a Saints fan you should feel secure knowing you have a probowl level qb, who has led a similarly talented team to the playoffs twice before as a starter. To further your comfort level the Saints have a guy in Hill that can come in and confuse a defense with his running ability while still hurting them through the air as well. In Pittsburgh after Rudolph's performance through the preseason and following up with a solid showing after taking over fans should be expecting good things from the future of the position while hoping that Delvin Hodges doesn't have to see the field at all this year. While depth is worrisome I have faith in Rudolph as the starter. Gardner Minshew could fall flat on his face next week or continue to light up defenses and keep mistakes to a minimum. I am a huge Eagles fan so call me biased for wanting Minshew and the Jags to succeed so my former qb coach can add to his impressive resume and eventually gain consideration as a head coach. Which could be a very real possibility if Minshew continues to play this way. The worst situation currently is the Jets. While Siemian has led a team to 9-7 he struggles with inconsistency. However there is something about him offensive coaches love. Gary Kubiak fell in love with Siemian before drafting him despite a previously torn ACL, then Minnesota traded for him to back up Cousins last year under John Defillippo another former qb coach, and currently he plays under another supposed qb whisperer in Adam Gase. It remains to be seen if Siemian can play his way back into the good graces of the league or struggle again, and eventually wind up a journeyman backup qb.




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