Is all this change in Houston going to add up to success?

Very quietly this offseason the Houston Texans have experienced some dramatic changes. Last year it was all over headlines that They fired their GM, were accused of tampering by the Patriots in regards to Nick Caserio, then ultimately settled on not hiring a GM. Quite the dramatic hiring process for the Texans. But that was last year and somehow this season a lot more changes have come but no one has actually left. 

So how is it there is so much turnover going into 2020 if no coaches or front office people have left? It actually all began last season when O'Brien broke the trade market, shipping out Clowney, acquiring Laremy Tunsil, and Kenny Stills. During the 2019 season the Texans looked to be improved after these big moves, and responded with a playoff victory. This all inspired owner Bob McNair to make a decision. The Texans would be sticking with the front office formula from 2019. Despite the fact that Caserio was now free to be interviewed this offseason, despite O'Brien already being the head coach and offensive play caller, his duties were now updated to add the GM title. Very much in the mold of Bill Belichek, O'Brien now had as much control as you could get as a head coach. So what would he do with it??

He naturally delegated some power away. If you have watched how the Patriots organization works you have noticed that Belichek is very good at being a CEO style coach. At one point he was the head coach, defensive play caller, and GM. But he realized that was too much for one man. So he did what any smart CEO would do. He empowered people he trusted, this all began with Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennell as O.C. and D.C. both of these guys would later be hired as head coaches only to later be fired. O'Brien being a product of the Patriots Way, followed suit. 

After being handed GM duties, he leaned on Jack Esterby for the nitty gritty details of each trade and contract situation, which allowed O'Brien to aggressively focus on talent evaluation, and scoping the market for trade bait. This worked with such success he followed suit after being handed the duties long term. This time he shuffled some defensive coaches. Romeo Crennel had served as the defensive coordinator on and off since 2014, when he was hired he brought with him a former player Mike Vrabel. Now most NFL coaches would never do this but Crennell stepped aside WILLINGLY to allow Vrabel to assume the coordinator role in 2017, which was all Vrabel needed to get the head coaching job for the Titans. So what did O'Brien do? Simply handed duties back to Crennel, but only for another two years. Crennel will again serve as an assistant head coach, overseeing the defense while former defensive line coach Anthony Weaver will be promoted. This gives O'Brien a man he trusts to oversee all things defense for the Texans. This is simply O'Brien being smart enough to realize his strengths lie on offense, and rather than meddle in the defense he is empowering two men to handle that side of the ball as they need to. 

On offense O'Brien is still the man ultimately in charge and even called plays last year even after promoting young up and comer Tim Kelly to offensive coordinator. Well he must have liked what Kelly did in 2019, because he has now handed him playcalling for 2020 and beyond. Kelly is essentially O'Brien's version of Josh McDaniels. McDaniels, and Kelly both worked their way up to the coordinator spot in 4 seasons, both started out as low level assistants before over seeing a position group and later being promoted to coordinator. Both guys had a background in defense prior to switching to offense as well. It's almost as if O'Brien handpicked Kelly as a McDaniels lite. 

There is reason to believe this model will have success. I mean let's break this down logically. At this point O'Brien has control of his roster, and has basically appointed a head coach of his defense in Crennel. He then hired two younger coordinators, guys that perhaps grow with the program for years to come, essentially becoming Houston's versions of McDaniels and Matt Patricia. These younger guys are not unqualified either. Anthony Weaver was born 7/28/80 in Kileen, Texas before going on to be a second round pick in the NFL who went on to play 4 seasons in Baltimore before playing his final 3 years in Houston with Texans. That was just 12 seasons ago. He had a 2 year hiatus before jumping into coaching in 2010, spending a one year stint at Florida as a graduate assistant, 2011 he coached LB's in North Texas, moved to the NFL with the Jets and found his niche spending one year as an assistant D line coach, he dropped the assistant title with the Bills in 2013, then moved on to Cleveland for 2 years. Finally after all that he was home, landing with Houston as their D-Line coach in 2016. Consider this for Weaver's coaching tree: he played under Mike Nolan for 3 years, Rex Ryan for 1 year, and later Richard Smith for 3 years. After taking up coaching he had the privilege of working under Ryan again in 2012 with the Jets, followed Mike Pettine to Buffalo in 2013, and again followed him to Cleveland when he was hired as the head coach. After Pettine was fired Weaver returned to Houston and began coaching under Crennel. That list is basically a who's who of the best defensive minds in the NFL game over the past two decades. Weaver should bring a fresh set of eyes to the Texans defense, while injecting some more aggressiveness and exotic blitzes from his days with Ryan and Pettine. Nolan likely taught him the fundamentals of scheme versatility being that he has often flip flopped between a 3-4 and 4-3 based on situations he has been in. Weaver himself was a versatile player at times lining up inside as a defensive tackle in 4 linemen sets, but primarily played DE in a 3-4. I expect the Texans to remain a base 3-4 defense but mix in more 4-3 looks. 

Kelly on the other hand has had the vast majority of his offensive experience under O'Brien but as most coaches tend to do, he still would like to employ his scheme because obviously he knows what type of players he is looking for as a GM for his system. Bringing up a guy who can handle playcalling and do so with a mind toward how O'Brien himself would handle it is a recipe for cohesion between GM and coordinator which typically nets solid results. Although I expect to see some wrinkles this isn't like your typical new play caller situation. This is very much still O'Brien's offense. Kelly has spent time coaching the offensive line, tight ends, and quarterbacks meaning before taking this job he had a feel for most of the offense and its position groups already, more importantly he has the players' respect from last year. 

Ultimately I think O'Brien has positioned himself well and built a regime, and roster I believe can replicate the success of the Patriot Way to some extent. Watson is simply too good of a qb, to doubt his progression, and O'Brien comes from a place where they value intelligent qb play above all else.