Sunday, March 29, 2020

Who will start for New England in 2020

In an offseason full of headlines, and breaking news the one signing that shocked the world like no other was Tom Brady signing in Tampa. It opened what appears to be a gaping hole at qb for the Patriots who have enjoyed unparalleled success over the past two decades. However this season could prove to be the biggest test of Belichek and McDaniels that they have ever faced. A future without Tom Brady. 

As it sat when Brady announced he was leaving New England the team had just two qbs under contract. 2019 4th round pick Jarrett Stidham, and veteran Cody Kessler. Not exactly an awe inspiring group considering the fact that the Patriots have had one of the most stable qb positions in the league for the last 30 years. Reports are that the team likes Stidham, and his predraft assessment was that of a player that could develop into a starter in the NFL with the right coaching. Let's take a look at his draft profile and touch on his perceived strengths and weaknesses after 3 seasons as a qb in college. He was viewed to have adequate size and strength, above average mobility, known to have the ability to decipher defenses with personal reads, makes good decisions while running a pro system. As evidenced by his above 60% rate his entire college career. His weaknesses seem to stem primarily from his disappointing 2018 campaign in which he seemed to look antsy in the pocket, lacked confidence, developed inconsistencies in his presnap reads, started to hold onto the ball too long, and looked to tuck and run too much. However that was before spending a year watching Tom Brady play, and learning under Josh McDaniels. Spending time in a role where you can hone your craft after having a down year would likely be the perfect reset for a guy who desperately needed one. Perhaps he comes out and truly seizes this job in his second season and the Patriots continue their unprecedented security at the position into a 4th decade. 

After Brady officially signed with Tampa, and Rivers officially signed with Indy, Indy cut former Patriot qb Brian Hoyer who they signed for a third stint with the team. Barring an unforeseen addition of a veteran I expect Hoyer to serve as the top backup behind Stidham if he starts. Hoyer knows this offense extremely well, and can help coach up the younger Stidham. This was a smart move in an offseason that may not include mini camps, otas, and perhaps even have a shortened training camp.

Cody Kessler is their current third string qb. This guy is a former 3rd round pick for the Browns. He has bounced around since leaving Cleveland. Heading into his 5th season on his 4th team he has played in 17 games completing 224 of 349 passes Or 64.2% for 2,215 yards 8 tds and 5 ints adding 31 carries for 140 yards. He is an extremely solid third string qb and I expect him to stay on the roster. The Patriots signed him prior to 2019 and kept him instead of Hoyer so there is a chance he stays and Hoyer goes if another veteran is signed. Kessler is still relatively young and could develop a long term nfl career as a  backup but I doubt he is viewed as a starter at this point. I see him as kind if a less mobile Case Keenum. 

When you look at the current free agent market and trade market you still have notable names available. Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco are all still out there to be had, with lesser names like Mike Glennon, Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Moore, Josh McCown, and Geno Smith also out there. Many people speculated about a trade for Andy Dalton because of his status as a relatively steady starter, he may not be the best option but there has been no rumors about a trade being talked about. 

Recently there have been reports that due to the Patriots cap situation they can't really afford to even sign or trade for a qb. Currently despite paying the players on their roster just north of $177 million in total they have just over $700,000 in cap space...you read that right. $700,000 to sign rookies, which basically means you can expect at least one or two more expensive veterans cut or restructured just to sign the draft picks. Let alone any free agents. The sad part is former players Tom Brady ($13.1 million), Antonio Brown ($4.75 million), Stephen Gostkowski ($3.2 million), Michael Bennett ($2 million), Duron Harmon ($1.25 million), Duke Dawson ($765,000), and Mike Pennell ($255,000) account for just under $26 million in dead cap. 

Obviously there are always ways of freeing up cap space, item number 1 is a long term deal or a trade of Joe Thuney who currently accounts for $14.78 million in cap space on the franchise tag. I think you could get him closer to a cap hit of $11 million with a 4-5 year extension possibly even lower cap number depending on how the contract is structured. Two other moves would be to cut or trade Mohammed Sanu, who would result in $0 dead cap and free up $6.5 million in cap space, while restricting or trading Donta Hightower could free up around $6.5 million as well. However then these players have to be replaced as well. However if you look at 2021 the Patriots look to be flush with cap space at $110 million but have 37 impending free agents so there is a lot of extension work that could work to free up more space and solidify the core of the team going forward but the more I look at the financial situation the more I think it is highly unlikely the Patriots go with a veteran starter in 2020. They will likely let Stidham or a rookie sink or swim, go into 2021 with a presumably high draft pick or a franchise qb already in place, and a bunch of cap space. Primed for a rebuild of their dynasty. 

Eagles defensive moves so far

The Eagles came into this season with perceived needs at CB, Safety, Wide Receiver, and pass rusher. They have addressed their defensive needs through free agency like most expected, but not quite in the way we all expected. 

The Eagles had been rumored to be targetting Byron Jones on the open market but he wound up signing with Miami. After watching James Bradberry, Desmond Trufant and others sign with teams around the league the Eagles turned to the trade market and secured the services of Darius Slay, for a 3rd and 5th round pick. Slay had a down season for his standards anyway but still managed to intercept 2 passes, and defend 13 passes in 14 games. Just 2 seasons ago Slay had 8 interceptions and hasn't had a season without an interception since his rookie year. 2017 was his best season with 60 tackles, 26 passes defended, and 8 ints. He was at one point regarded as one of the best CB's in the league but after the trade came out speaking against the way Matt Patricia coached him and I would question if this didn't affect his play the past two seasons causing his slump. Regardless the Eagles had their eyes on Slay for the better part of 3 years and finally got him and locked him up for 3 years. This was one of the more telegraphed of their free agency moves.

Their next major move in the secondary was to resign Jalen Mills to play a hybrid safety/CB role. Mills might be their second best cornerback on the outside but they believe he could be a better safety than he was a cornerback. You may remember prior to Malcolm Jenkins moving to safety with the Saints he was a former first round pick at CB. He made the move after Just one season in the NFL and within a few years was used as a do everything defender who can line up in the box as an extra LB, in the slot to cover, as a single high safety, on blitzes, and became the unquestioned leader of the locker room along the way. The Eagles are hoping Mills can follow a similar path. The 6'1 205 lb cornerback played free safety in college so he is not completely green at the position couple that with the fact that he is a favorite of Jim Schwartz, and has been in this playbook for years now I would argue his transition should be smoother than most CB's that make this move. Also the new secondary coach Marquand Manuel has a history of moving cornerbacks to safety, he moved Ricardo Allen to safety in Atlanta and coached Desmond Trufant to his first pro bowl. The Eagles are hoping he can coach Sydney Jones or Avonte Maddox to their first. 

At free safety they also resigned Rodney McLeod. McLeod started all 16 games last year had 76 tackles, 1 sack, 5 pass deflections, 2 ints, and 2 forced fumbles. Which honestly isn't far off his best statistical season. McLeod will likely take over the leadership role in this secondary as the older statesman at 29. He is signed through 2021 but there is an off chance his future replacement was signed this season. 

Will Parks is a guy who has similar versatility to Malcolm Jenkins, he has played in the box, single high safety, right cornerback, or in the slot. Oddly enough the percentage he saw snaps at each position were similar to that of Jenkins. At 26 years old the 5th year veteran played 4 years in Denver learning from guys like Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib, and Darian Stewart. Parks is a Philly native and actually took less money to head home for a year. Parks signing serves several purposes for the Eagles. He adds a solid player to serve as their third safety in big nickel packages, while adding depth across the secondary, and special teams play. Most importantly he adds insurance at both safety spots. If Mills isn't cutting it at safety Parks can step in, if injuries occur the drop off won't be terrible. More importantly Parks has a penchant for big plays. In his rookie season he returned a blocked extra point attempt for the winning points in a game, that was after beating out Shiloh Keo for the backup strong safety job. Later that year he also managed an interception. In high school this guy played cornerback, wide receiver, running back, and kick returner. In college the 6'1 196 lb safety played specific positions in Arizona's 3-3-5 defense. He started at the "Bandit" position before moving to the "Spur" position. These positions in Arizona's defense are essentially hybrid safety/linebackers. They are used in coverage and run support. This is basically the exact role Jenkins played in the NFL. He served as a defacto third LB, even though he was deemed a safety. Allowing the Eagles to have a third cornerback or safety on the field. I believe Parks will be used in this exact role for Philly which will allow the team to use Mills exactly how they want to use him, as a safety who will come down and play the nickelback position when needed. 

The final signing was Nickel Robey-Coleman a former nickelback for New Orleans, and Buffalo. He is a very underrated signing for the team and it allows them to have an open competition between Sydney Jones, Avonte Maddox, Coleman, and Crevon Leblanc. I think Coleman could come in on big nickel packages when Parks, Mills, and McLeod are in the game allowing Mills to line up at outside cornerback opposite of Slay, while Coleman lines up in the slot. Ultimately it gives the Eagles options all over the secondary. 

Taking a look at the depth chart it should look something like this:
CB1 Darius Slay
CB2 Jones/Mills (certain packages)
CB3 Coleman or Maddox
CB4 Maddox or Coleman
CB5 LeBlanc
FS1 Mcleod
SS1 Mills
S3 Parks 

On the defensive line they decided to aid the pass rush by bringing in a former 3-4 nose tackle from Pittsburgh. Javon Hargrave, this is not your typical nose tackle, he is undersized for the position at 6'2 305, but this should just demonstrate his strength. He was able to not only hold his own at roughly 20 lbs under most other nose tackles, while being arguably the best pass rushing nose tackle in the NFL. In 4 years in Pittsburgh this guy had 168 tackles, 14.5 sacks, 2 pass deflections, and 2 forced fumbles. Hargrave belongs in a 4-3 defense that allows him to get up field on every play and not be asked to two gap to free up ends and LB's. Playing next to Fletcher Cox will undoubtedly help his pass rushing production as well because he will face less double teams. Many people are saying this move makes Malik Jackson expendable but I disagree. 

One of the issues I see with our defensive tackle rotation is the fact that Cox is almost never allowed to come off the field because of the lack of quality depth behind him. Well now you have a really solid top 3 defensive tackles in Hargrave, Cox, and Jackson that keep each other fresh and healthy, while Hassan Ridgeway will also get in the mix at times. The other factor here is the ability of Jackson to play end. I have heard he doesn't like to play end but being that we would be either our 3rd or 4th option at end, and really only play the position in short yardage and running situations it would likely not account for a ton of snaps. 

Depth chart so far:
DE1 Brandon Graham
DE2 Derek Barnett
DE3 Josh Sweat/Malik Jackson
DE4 Genard Avery
DE5 Shareef Miller
DE6 Daeshon Hall or Joe Ostman
DT1 Cox
DT2 Hargrave 
DT3 Jackson
DT4 Ridgeway
DT5 Anthony Rush 
DT6 Bruce Hector 
DT7 Albert Huggins

The Eagles seem to be high on Anthony Rush so I would expect them to keep 5 tackles, which may lead them to only keep 5 defensive ends. If they expect Jackson to take snaps at both spots this should be plenty of depth at both spots unless they want to add another pass rusher at the top of the depth chart. Maybe someone to compete with Sweat for the 3rd end role. 

At linebacker they have signed just one guy. Jatavius Brown. The 4th year former Charger is an under rated signing. This guy didn't play a ton in 2019 but that was the exception to the rule for his career. He is an undersized guy that made his bones on special teams at first but was a spot starter for the Chargers. In 4 years he played in 55 games starting 23 of them. He had 255 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 12 tipped passes, and 3 forced fumbles between 2016-2018. He was basically the guy they would call on anytime someone got hurt. If they needed him to play either inside linebacker spot in their 3-4 defense he would step right in but also played outside when needed and actually showed his chops as a pass rusher his rookie season with 3.5 sacks. I believe he will up playing a large role for the Eagles in 2020. With the Eagles base defense being used less than their nickel packages he might wind up being the third LB in base defense. 

I expect the depth chart to look like this:
MLB:Tj Edwards, 2) Jatavius Brown
WLB:Nate Gerry, 2)Duke Riley
SLB:Jatavius Brown 3)Alex Singleton

Now I am certainly not of the mindset that we are set at any of these positions but that's why I like these moves. They are all low risk high reward moves. Brown, Parks, and Coleman are all on 1 year deals, so if they underperform, or there is value in the draft at that position I don't put it past the team to still have an eye on acquiring talent. The one position on defense I don't see us adding anyone else is defensive tackle. Outside cornerback, safety, defensive end, and any LB spot is still very much in play. 

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Isaiah Simmons the Perfect Patriot

The Patriots are walking into an uncertain era. Tom Brady is gone and they will be led by a new face at qb in 2020. They still have perceived holes at WR, TE, Safety, LB, and could use some more youth at CB. 

Now an arguement could be made as to which position is the most important for them to address in the draft but I think there is one player above all others that screams New England Patriot to me. That's Isaiah Simmons. Simmons is a 6'4 238 lb athletic freak. He is described by his NFL draft profile as having a bachelor's degree in three positions linebacker, slot cornerback, and safety showcasing his versatility a trait that is tops on the Patriots list of wants for a prospect. Being versatile is one thing, but being smart enough to truly excell at three positions while having unbelieveable athleticism for his size, is the type of player that doesn't come around often. When was the last time you heard of a 6'4 238 lb player running a 4.39 40 yard dash or having a 35 inch vertical jump? I am convinced this guy could turn around and play running back or tight end on offense and excell if asked. He is just one of those players that has such a high floor due to his intelligence, experience, versatility, and athleticism that a lot of teams have him projected as a probowl level talent from day 1. 

Now doing a case study on New England's LB's to determine what they look for isn't necessary, CBS Sports posted an article a while back pointing to the body types of LB's the Patriots have drafted as of late. They are typically 6'2-6'4, and between 240 lbs and 265 lbs. Simmons definitely has the frame to bulk up if they ask him to but I think his ideal playing weight is just a bit under where he is at now. Get him around 235 or so, play him at inside linebacker, and in nickel and dime packages. His athletic ability at LB would allow the Patriots to keep him on the field three downs, acting as a sort of 3rd safety/LB. Using him to cover tight ends, running backs and spy mobile qbs. Giving this linebacking group a speed guy like this would offset the bigger bodies they have and allow for much more versatility from their base defense than ever before. 

More importantly Simmons has come out and said his only desire is to win. He will play whatever position asked of him, or multiple positions if needed. I doubt he would have any issue playing on special teams, and this team first attitude would be right at home in New England. Obviously this man isn't perfect and has a few areas that need to be developed mainly in the run game and shedding blocks but those things can be taught by a very strong defensive coaching staff. 

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Quinton Dunbar the next Richard Sherman?

Seattle just sent a 2020 5th round pick to Washington for CB Quinton Dunbar. For those that didn't pay attention to the terrible Redskins last season I don't blame you for not knowing this guy's name yet. However you may want to get acquainted with his name if you are a fan of an NFC team. I believe he might be the next shut down cornerback for the Seahawks. 

The 6'2 202 lb cornerback actually came into the NFL as an undrafted free agent wide receiver, and special teams player. He was facing a four man competition for a roster spot with the team right out of the gate in 2015. On August 7th, 2015 after several injuries to their secondary and watching Dunbar jam gunners on special teams week after week they decided to move Dunbar to cornerback. After originally being waived during final cuts he was immediately resigned to the practice squad. He would spend just a few weeks there before being promoted to the active roster. He went on to play in 11 games logged 13 tackles, 5 passes defended, and 1 int. Proving he had potential at the position after making the move just a couple months before. 

In year two he played in 14 games, logging twice as many tackles, 1 sack, and identical pass break up and int numbers. He also managed 1 reception for 31 yards, but also had a muffed return attempt. In year three he again proved he belonged at CB, 15 games, 35 tackles, 8 pass breakups, 1 int. Year four, another step forward at the position prior to a nerve issue. In 7 games he had 39 tackles, 9 pass breakups, and 2 ints. I believe he began to really feel comfortable and put it all together in 2018, and while some view the injury as an issue it sounds as though it was a freak situation that isn't something he could control. But it may have actually paid off, because in 2019 Dunbar came back and dominated in route to a #2 CB ranking by PFF. He played 11 games 37 tackles, 8 pass breakups, and 4 ints. This guy has the physical attributes to be a real lockdown corner with 4.44 speed, long arms, a physical style of play and a chip on his shoulder from being undrafted. Dunbar might just go on to be the next Richard Sherman for Seattle. 

Ron Rivera apparently wasn't a fan of his secondary

List of Defensive Backs leaving Washington:
CB Josh Norman-cut signed with Bill's
CB Quinten Dunbar-traded away
CB Coty Sensabaugh cut
CB Breon Borders cut
CB Dee Delaney cut
CB Kayvon Webster cut 
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie UFA
CB Aaron Colvin UFA 
S Montae Nicholson cut


List of players joining the team:
CB/FS Kendall Fuller 
S Sean Davis 

Looking at all the guys leaving the team it's quite shocking there is even anyone left on the roster. 

However returning are 
CB Fabian Moreau 
CB Greg Stroman 
CB Jimmy Moreland
SS Landon Collins 
S Deshazor Everett
S Troy Apke
S Maurice Smith 
S Jeremy Reeves

Obviously there is work to do here. Bringing in Sean Davis and Kendall Fuller certainly helps but where Fuller plays and how much Davis contributes remains to be seen. Fuller started as a promising cornerback before basically being phased out in KC ultimately after injuries at safety they were forced to play him there and he played well. Looking at the Redskins roster I would expect Fuller to primarily play cornerback likely in the slot. Sean Davis will most likely wind up winning the free safety job. Fabian Moreau will likely remain a starter at outside cornerback, Stroman was injured last season and may face an uphill battle to earn time at cornerback but will most likely make the roster for his special teams play, both on coverage teams, and as a returner. Stroman did play quite a bit as a rookie appearing in 15 games and starting 3, however they also still have Jimmy Moreland. Moreland played 14 games, starting 5. While he didn't get credited with any pass breakups or ints, he is only in his second season and could still compete for a job. 

So far for those keeping track this is our projected depth chart:

CB1:Fabian Moreau 
CB2:Kendall Fuller (shifts to slot in nickel packages)
CB3:Jimmy Moreland, Greg Stroman or a draft pick

SS1 Landon Collins, SS2 Jeremy Reeves, SS3 Maurice Smith 
FS1 Sean Davis, FS2 Deshazor Everett, FS3 Troy Apke

Signing Fuller and Davis dramatically helped the outlook with the secondary but I would expect to see more movement either late in free agency or through the draft. Probably in the form of another cornerback. 

Monday, March 23, 2020

Jordan Ta'amu just made the smartest move of his career

Jordan Ta'amu spent the 2018 offseason trying to make the Houston Texans roster, but was ultimately released after a month with the team. However Ta'amu has one main thing going for him, his youth. He won't turn 23 until December. Somehow his mobility, arm talent and youth didn't manage to land him a job from August 2018, until October 15th 2019 when he was allocated to the St. Louis Battlehawks. 

Jordan Ta'amu originally came into camp expected to be the backup with former Panther Taylor Heineke, and Nick Fitzgerald on the roster. But the inexperienced young qb got a late 22nd birthday present when he was named the starting qb for the Battlehawks. Ta'amu quickly was regarded as the second best passer in the league behind only Phillip Walker who signed with the Panthers. Ta'amu displayed impressive athleticism, a penchant for avoiding mistakes, and an ability to make big plays in a pro style offense. He went on to a ridiculous 72% completion rate, averaged 8 yards per attempt for a total of 1,050 yards, 5 tds and 2 ints in 5 games adding 41 Carrie's for 217 yards and 1 td. To me he reminds me a lot of Drew Brees, just with more mobility and I was expecting him to sign in New Orleans. However he made what I can only see as the best possible decision he could have. 

Jordan Ta'amu has now signed a contract with the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. He will compete for a third string job behind Patrick Mahomes, and Chad Henne. His main competition will be 2019 rookie Kyle Shurmur. This will be an interesting case study of how the ability to play in a defacto developmental league affects a qb. The 22 year old is still young enough to be a rookie yet has the benefit of a full training camp and 5 starts in a professional league under his belt, while his competition is actually over a year older despite leaving college a year later. He also doesn't have the playing experience Ta'amu got over the past couple months. 

Regardless of how this situation plays out I think Ta'amu made the right decision because of the coaching staff he will learn under going forward. Andy Reid is the best offensive mind in the league and employees some of the best assistant coaches in the league. Ta'amu will be able to work directly with former NFL qb Mike Kafka now the Chiefs qb coach and passing game coordinator who will undoubtedly love the skillset Ta'amu brings. 

Saturday, March 21, 2020

An in depth look at the Eagles Linebackers

Tuesday Februrary 18th 2020 the Eagles declined Nigel Bradham's 2020 option leaving them with a talented but vastly inexperienced group of LB's. On the surface the group looks more like a collection of role players than it is a group of starters with clear cut depth players. I am higher on this group of guys than most but I still see an obvious need to address the position. I would say this position is best addressed by a free agent signee to add a bit more experience to the position but it wouldn't be shocking to see them address this position with a starting caliber free agent a mid to late rounder development prospect. But first let's address the specific role we need to address heading into 2020. 

With one quick look at the guys on the roster it becomes apparent the most experienced linebacker on the roster now is Nathan Gerry. He is headed into his fourth year on the team, having played in 39 games since being promoted from the practice squad in October of 2017. Gerry is an interesting prospect. He entered college at Nebraska as a LB despite weighing around 200 lbs. He spent one season as a LB before Nebraska began to use him as a box safety. He blossomed in this role for two years only to turn around and be drafted as a LB. This is why the practice squad time was extremely valuable for him. He came into the NFL as a 6'2 218 lb converted safety. He needed time in a weight room to bulk up to the 235 lbs he plays at now. Last season was Gerry's first with significant playing time as a starter. While he did miss tackles at times, his ability in coverage is undeniable. He is  a prototypical new age linebacker. In today's NFL more teams are using converted safeties as LB'S because they spend a lot of time in nickel and dime packages. Having a true LB on the field can be a liability, that's why a guy like Gerry who has the instincts and experience of a safety with a bigger frame is such an asset in this defense. Gerry may actually be one of the better ball hawks on this defense. He had 9 ints in 2 seasons as a starting safety in college. He displayed his playmaking ability last season, in 16 games he had 78 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 5 passes defended, and 2 ints as well as 1 td return. I believe he would be suited as a weak side linebacker in our defense, and I believe he has the athleticism, and is young and determined enough to develop as a run defender and shore up his tackling. In three years this guy went from practice squad to most experienced LB, and most likely to return as a starter. 

Kamu Grugier-Hill is another former safety, however his stats in coverage last year did not look like it. Grugier-Hill didn't start playing football until his junior year of high school. Then he started his playing career as a safety and punter. He went on to play college football at Eastern Illinois. He played LB in college but was still 6'2 215 lbs and closer to a box safety, than he was a true LB. He was drafted in the 6th round by New England but didn't make the team, I believe they intended to stash him on the practice squad much like the Eagles did with Gerry but Philly swooped in and signed him off waivers. In his first two seasons Grugier-Hill was primarily a special teams player, recording 30 tackles, and 4 kickoffs for a 62 yard average in relief of the injured Elliot. The following season he began to develop a role on defense logging 45 tackles, 1 sack, 2 passes defended, and 1 int. Heading into 2019 he was talked up as a potential break out candidate, with teammates going as far as saying it was a challenge going against him in practice. Unfortunately he went on to get hurt, and disappointed through the 2019 season when on the field. He is an impending free agent but the Eagles tend to keep their own guys over adding free agents, and they typically play it cheap at LB which leads me to believe he will he back on another 1 year deal. He only made $850,000 last year so the potential is there for an even cheaper deal after a poor 2019 in which he suffered multiple injuries. I still believe he can be a starting caliber LB in the NFL but I think he and Gerry are essentially the same player with Gerry being the more polished player in coverage. Now having two of these guys would be extremely helpful in big nickel packages when you only line up two LB's, why not have two former safeties. But in order for Grugier-Hill to last in this league he has to be better in coverage. He simply isn't effective enough in run defense or rushing the passer to get around his smaller size. 

Duke Riley is a guy who came over in a trade from Atlanta last season. Riley is a career LB but was another undersized guy coming out of college at 218 lbs. He formed a highly touted LB group with Deion Jones, and Devondra Campbell in Atlanta after being drafted in 3rd round. He however never lived up to expectations in Atlanta, and was shipped to Philly in exchange for Jonathon Cyprien and a swap of late round picks. He quickly became a special teams captain in the playoffs. He may not have planned out in Atlanta but they only gave him 32 games to figure it out. This is a third round pick, clearly the guy has talent it's just a matter of utilizing it. Am I advocating for him to start? No. But letting him compete wouldn't hurt, and he adds solid experienced depth which we desperately need right now. More importantly his 

Alex Singleton may not be a very well known name, and a lot of people are simply writing him off as the forgotten man. The guy who has little to no effect on the roster whether he stays or goes. I however view him a bit differently. Singleton is a guy who may not have caught on with an NFL team right away but this is a guy who was drafted to the CFL in 2016, playing with the Stampeders for three seasons. He played in 54 games racking up 322 defensive tackles, 17 special teams tackles, 10 tackles for a loss, 6 forced fumbles, 4 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 interception  and 9 pass deflections. In three seasons his list of awards is impressive. Two years being named all pro, two years being named conference all pro, 2017 most outstanding defensive player, and led his team to a 2018 Grey Cup win. This guy is just 26 years old, and he wouldn't be the first CFL star to come back to the NFL and prove people wrong. Remember Cameron Wake? 

Tj Edwards is a guy who didn't  get a ton of playing time last season while he technically started 4 games he was not asked to be a 3 down LB all game long. While there is a lot of buzz around him stepping into a fulltime starting role in 2020 I am still hesitant to hand the job over without competition. Especially if he is slated to start at the Mike. What I like about his situation is coming out of college he had a lot of playing time. He was a four year starter, so this isn't some role player, or special teams guy trying to make the leap. No he is a starting LB in his mind, and more importantly his film to an extent backs up this thought. More importantly he showed solid ability in coverage and tremendous ability to come up with big plays in the passing game with 10 career ints. 

So what do the Eagles need at LB? Their biggest need in my eyes is a true mike linebacker. That can run sideline to sideline and affect the run game. I truly believe we have a solid LB in Gerry, which means we really only need one more starting LB, unless Malcolm Jenkins is let go. Jenkins plays a sort of hybrid safety/strong side LB role. Which makes the need for 3 full time starting LBs less than a typical team. 

It's time to change the way we look at Todd Gurley

A few years ago Todd Gurley was the undisputed top running back in the draft despite a previous knee injury in college. After playing just 6 games his junior year he declared for the draft and was selected by the Rams 10th overall despite playing in just 1 full season in college. He went on to reward their pick becoming one of the most decorated running backs in the league his first three years. 

His list of awards is amazing:
3 time pro bowler 
2 time first team all pro
1 time second team all pro
NFL offensive player of the year 2017
2 time NFL rushing td leader
NFL offensive rookie of the year
PFWA All Rookie team
Second team all SEC 2013
First team all SEC 2012
1 super bowl appearance

He garnered all of this attention because he is a prototypical running back. He stands 6'1 224 lbs, has quick feet to make cuts, and insane burst through the hole, and the power to break tackles. He was nothing short of a bellcow back for the Rams, but I am advocating for him to play second fiddle at this point in his career. Gurley is a game changer without a doubt but with his recent knee issues he has lost some of his patented burst, and quickness which has also compromised some of the power he ran with. However there are assets that Gurley has that have not declined and should be focused on. Gurley is an accomplished receiver out of the backfield, something that I believe should not be overlooked going forward. I think Gurley even with diminished abilities would provide a boost in the passing game as a third down back, and maybe even at times as a slot receiver. In 5 years Gurley has 218 receptions for just over 2,000 yards and 12 tds. He has had two seasons with over 55 receptions in his career including 2017 when he caught 64 passes for 788 yards and 6 tds. I know typically 6'1 221 lb backs aren't the type of guys you start experimenting with at WR after 5 years in the NFL, however Gurley is just 25 years old, and already having reoccurring knee issues that will limit his productivity if Atlanta sticks with the status quo and hands him the ball 200+ times in 2020. 

As a 25 year old with solid hands Gurley has a chance to carve out a productive role as a receiver, in the process extending his career a minimum of 3 years. While reducing the majority of the pounding his legs take regularly. Fortunately he has signed with Atlanta that has invested draft picks at RB with Ito Smith and Brian Hill who can at least take some of the work load off of Todd Gurley, but if it is me, I start using Gurley about 50% of the time as a receiver. Get him in space where he can make a guy miss rather than sending him between the tackles play after play. After you all you have another guy in Hill who can take some of those inside Carries away from Gurley and produce steady yardage. 

If I am Atlanta I am trying to prolong Gurley's career and keep him around for a few years while I rebuild my team into a playoff contender. If nothing else Gurley is a Georgia Alumni which will keep fans interested despite years of mediocre play from an extremely talented team. Honestly I think Gurley as a slot receiver at times could produce more big plays than he did as a runner, who is going to cover a 6'1 225 lb slot receiver that at one point was reportedly running a sub 4.4 40 yard dash? You can't expect a LB to keep up, a cornerback will be undersized, and most safeties aren't the athlete Gurley is either. Alas I am certain going forward Atlanta will follow the status quo and simply grind Gurley into dust over the next year or 2 until his knee simply can't hold up and he is forced to retire. Sometimes teams get stuck in seeing a player a certain way after he has played one role for so long that they do themselves and the player a disservice by not experimenting. 

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Making a case for Denver to acquire Trent Williams

Drafted in 2010 fourth overall, this particular player has gone to 7 pro bowls in 9 seasons, Was named second team all pro in 2015, was a unanimous all american in 2009, and voted first team all big 12 in 2008 and 2009. However headed into 2020 he is in the final year of his contract and was recently given permission to seek a trade after a year long hold out due to a messy situation I won't get into here. Needless to say players of this caliber don't come available very often. 

That player of course is Trent Williams, who will be seeking a trade this offseason. With his resume there is without a doubt going to be a list of teams bidding for his services via trade. He is likely, even after missing all of 2019, a top 10 left tackle in the NFL, which is a position we have seen recently with Duane Brown, and Laremy Tunsil that doesn't come cheap. Taking a closer look at both trades we should be able to get a glimpse at what William's will cost. 

First let's look at the more clear cut of the two trades. Duane Brown was in a similar situation to Williams, he was unhappy with his former team the Texans, and wanted a new deal. Ultimately holding out to get one. Seattle swooped in and traded for him after a failed physical by Jeremy Lane, the trade including Houston sending Seattle Brown, and a 5th round pick in exchange for a 2nd and 3rd round picks. This was basically Houston's way of saying Brown was worth just over the value of a first round pick which is why it took a second and a third with a fifth shipped back. Brown was a 10 year veteran and former first round pick with 4 pro bowl nods, 1 first team all pro, and 2 second team all pro votes. He was only slightly older and less decorated than William's is currently. 

Then we have the Laremy Tunsil trade which is far more complicated to break down. First here is everything and everyone that changed hands:
Houston Shipped out:
2020 first round pick
2020 second round pick
2021 first round pick 
DB Johnson Bademosi
OT Julian Davenport

Miami gave up:
LT Laremy Tunsil 
WR Kenny Stills
2020 4th round pick
2021 6th round pick

Ultimately this trade just isn't cut and dry. If I had to break it down I would ultimately say it is a two part trade. Miami gave up Laremy Tunsil, and their 2020 4th round pick for Julian Davenport, a 2020 first round pick and a 2021 first round pick. While Stills and their 2021 6th round pick were exchanged for Bademosi, and a 2020 second round pick. Tunsil was younger at just 24 years old when the trade occurred but wasn't nearly as decorated and arguably had much larger off field concerns stemming from his draft day incident. Tunsil had at the time never been to a pro bowl, never been voted all pro and had all his accolades come in college. However the trade seems to have paid off with him reaching the pro bowl last season his first with the Texans. 

Which is one reason why I am pushing for Denver to call Washington and start talking trade. Looking at the other two trades I would put Williams' value closer to that of Tunsil despite his age than I would Brown's. It is unheard of to be able to secure a guy like this that still has football left in him. So even if it involves giving up two first round picks to get him I do the deal. Maybe you can include Garrett Bolles in the deal, if not keep Bolles as the swing tackle or have him compete at RT. 

Taking a closer look at Denver's  offense as a whole will give you a better picture of why I would advocate for this team to mortgage their future for one player. 

First of all at quarterback you have a second year player heading into his first year as a full time starter. He saw limited action last season but heads into 2020 with upside. With your presumed franchise qb in place a first round pick isn't needed here. 

Last season we chose to trade down and draft Noah Fant in the first round a move that at the time looked terrible with a qb that Elway loved on the board until he snagged that guy in round 2, after of course also grabbing an instant starter at left guard. 2019's draft solidified the core of this offense for years to come. Elway simply has to fill the gaps that remain. 

The Broncos need a wide receiver next to Courtland Sutton, possibly two. However this is a receiver rich draft and a first round pick isn't needed to secure a starting caliber receiver. There are several names projected on day 2 of the draft including a home grown talent from CU that may catch their eye. 

The last and most important reason the Broncos desperately need Williams is veteran leadership. This team so insanely young at this point they need a veteran leader, and Flacco as a backup qb isn't going to be it. You need a hall of fame talent to lead the way. That's why Williams deserves the trade and contract he is asking for to close out his career, an DC it might just be what Denver needs. 

Raiders get their competition for Carr

Day one of the legal tampering period and the soon to be Las Vegas Raiders have already signed two players to fill two of their biggest needs. The first signing that hit the media was the signing of LB Nick Kwiatkowski the second was likely the more intriguing of the two signings. Marcus Mariota, the 26 year old quarterback who is a former second overall pick by Tennessee. 

Marcus Mariota is the perfect sort of reclamation project for Jon Gruden, and Greg Olsen behind Carr. There have been numerous reports tying the Raiders to Tom Brady as a potential replacement for Carr, but this move never made sense. However signing a guy like Mariota is the perfect insurance for Carr. It's not an immediate condemnation of Carr as the starter because obviously Mariota was just unseated as a starter. It does give Gruden and company an experienced starting caliber qb to turn to if they do decide to ultimately move on from Carr long term though which is exactly what they needed. 

What I like the most about this move is it allows the Raiders the ability to target other positions with the bulk of their cap space and draft capitol. Heading into the 2020 draft the Raiders have now filled two holes at LB, their vacant backup qb spot, signed a trio of former Cowboys to go with their recent addition to the coaching staff from Dallas Rod Marinelli. If there is one thing Mayock truly believes its drafting best player available and he is doing his best to set his team up to truly grab the best player available. 

If the Raiders stand pat with their current draft choices they are set up extremely well to add several guys who can contribute right away. Currently they hold only 7 picks, but 2 in the first round, 3 in the third round, 1 fourth and 1 fifth. I could see the Raiders either trading down to the later part of the first round to acquire a couple more mid to late round picks, or packaging a couple picks to trade up and give themselves a chance to draft a player like Chase Young, or perhaps Tua?

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Jacoby Brissett and Patriots headed to a reunion?

There has been nothing but speculation about the Patriots and Tom Brady up to this point. While most everyone knew he would at least feel out free agency I don't think anyone knew how much stock we needed to put in the thought that he would actually leave. However the time has come. After 2 decades of Brady donning a Patriots jersey, the two parties will be moving on, and while we know the race for Brady is down to two teams, (three if you believe Miami to be a wildcard), but there hasn't been much word on who the now Brady-less Patriots would target. There were whispers of Teddy Bridgewater but the Panthers swooped in and signed him to replace Cam Newton who will be shipped out of town. 

My question is why not target a familiar face? No not Jimmy Garrappolo although I think he could have been available, I believe the more likely qb to target is Jacoby Brissett. The Colts are rumored to be finalizing a deal with Phillip Rivers. Which means Brissett has suddenly become expendable. Brissett was a third round pick by New England in 2016. It was a move I thought I understood at the time. The Patriots were facing another impasse at the qb situation but not one quite as dramatic as 2020's reset. The Patriots were deciding whether to move on from Brady, and keep Garrappolo or let Garrappolo leave the following offseason via free agency. I was under the impression Brissett was brought in to be the next heir apparent to Brady or the backup to Garrappolo depending on which direction they went at the position. Brissett ultimately did serve as the backup to Garrappolo during a 4 game stretch in which Brady was suspended. Brissett went on to start a game and play well as a rookie. 

Then in 2017 the Patriots held a fire sale on their backup qbs. First they traded away Brissett the same guy they drafted just the year before to Indy in exchange for Phillip Dorsett. A move that I personally didn't understand at all at the time. I get Indy needed a qb, but in my mind Dorsett was a struggling player, not an ascending one, the Colts should have been asked for a draft pick and Dorsett, or simply a 2nd round draft pick. At that point Brissett still was under team control for 3 years, and Garrappolo was on his way out via his own trade just weeks later as well. Ultimately Garrappolo was traded for a second round pick to San Francisco in a bid by Belicheck to avoid having to play Garrappolo by shipping him to the Browns who had reportedly offered a better deal.

However here we are three years later, and the Patriots have just Jarrett Stidham and Cody Kessler on their depth chart. While Kessler started a bunch for Cleveland he is not viewed as anything more than a backup, and maybe even your third string qb at that. With Brady gone, their first reported Target Bridgewater now locked up in Carolina, and the rumor of an impending deal for Rivers in Indy, I think you call up Frank Reich and tell him you will give him a 3rd round pick for Brissett. Brissett is being replaced in Indy but doesn't have a terrible contract and could be kept still. His value is still solid because of his youth, and experience. In his four years in the league he has started 32 and played in 38, he completed just under 60% of his passes for 6,442 yards 31 tds, 13 ints, adding 142 carries for 564 yards and 9 more tds, but also has fumbled 9 times. 

Obviously the Patriots have immense confidence in Josh McDaniels and his ability to develop qbs and take their game to the next level. Why not give up a mid round pick, bring in the 27 year old Brissett who would cost the Pats just over $20 million for a one year rental, or they could try and sign him to another extension. The Colts in turn gain a 3rd round pick in exchange for a guy they were moving on from, and save themselves a $8,750,000 roster bonus paid on March 22nd. Giving them the ability to find some weapons for Rivers. Maybe a Rivers and Melvin Gordon reunion is in the works. 

This trade is a classic win win scenario, The Patriots get their hands on an experienced qb that has 32 starts under his belt, he is still just 27 years old and would give them an option with some mobility which could help out an offense in transition after losing Brady. The more important factor here is Brissett is familiar with some of the players, and the scheme meaning the transition to him as the starter would be much more smooth than to most other qbs not named Brady or Garrappolo. This is especially important knowing that OTA's have been cancelled due to the virus and that could only be the beginning of what could be a dramatically shortened offseason. 

Cardinals are showing remarkable aggression

We are just two days into this offseason legal tampering period, but yet the Cardinals have stolen headlines the past two days with moves that in theory should reshape this roster for years to come. 

Yesterday the Cardinals started by transition tagging Kenyan Drake. Drake burst onto the scene after he was added for peanuts midseason last year. Drake is just 26 years old, and a dual threat running back. The perfect mold for a back in Kingsbury's offense. Drake joined the Cardinals and immediately was given 14 or more touches in every game. He would go on to put up 643 rushing yards, adding 28 receptions for 171 yards in 8 games and 8 rushing tds, including a game against Cleveland in which he had 23 touches for 146 yards, and 4 total tds. The Cardinals put up just 38 points on offense that day with Drake being responsible for 24 of them. Pretty impressive for a guy who had just arrived 7 weeks before. 

After the move to transition tag Drake they went ahead and resigned Larry Fitzgerald to a 1 year deal. Fitzgerald is heading into his 17th season in Arizona. Through the previous 16 years Fitzgerald has been rock solid, never posting less than 58 receptions, 734 yards, and 2 tds. The last 5 years have displayed how little Fitz has dropped off. From 2015-2017, he had three straight years with 107 or more catches, 1,023 yards or more and 6 or more tds. With Steve Wilks, and now Kingsbury running the show thr past two years Fitzgerald still managed to put up solid numbers, while shifting a bit more into the slot. In 2018 with poor qb play, and two different coordinators he still had 69 receptions, 734 yards and 6 tds. Then after being paired with Kingsbury, and Murray he again put up a great year. 75 receptions for 804 yards and 4 tds. Fitzgerald is just one of those ageless players who works too hard and expects too much of himself to sign a contract if he knows he can't continue at a high level. Fitzgerald is coming back because he knows he still has more left to give, and wants to finally put a ring on his finger. Which is exactly why the Cardinals made their last move of the day. 

The trade that stunned the world, Arizona ships out David Johnson, a 2020 second round pick, and a 2021 4th round pick to Houston for WR DeAndra Hopkins, and a 2020 4th round pick. The fact that this trade basically required just a second round pick to pry one of the best wideouts in the game from his former team is nothing short of mindblowing. Pairing him with Murray, Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Kenyan Drake should make for an explosive offense. All of these guys create mismatches for the defense, and their 3 wideout set will be nearly unstoppable. I for one believe this move will lead Fitzgerald and Kirk to having monster seasons because Hopkins will draw double coverage. 

With day 1 in the books I don't think anyone expected many more large moves from the Cardinals but they decided they weren't done yet. This time they addressed their defense by way of signing Jordan Phillips a defensive tackle who is headed into his 6th season after spending the last two years in Buffalo. In 2019 he was handed starting snaps, 9 games actually which helped him produce 31 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble. Prior to 2019 he had flashed some ability to push the pocket with 5.5 sacks, 14 passes defended, and 1 int. To me this is not a flash in the pan but a guy finally getting an opportunity to start and play often. 

In two days the Cardinals have dramatically affected their offense and aided a suffering defense which has set them up to draft the best player available. The Cardinals head into the draft with just 6 draft picks now. Which is not enviable, but considering they have filled their biggest needs they should have enough draft capitol to still acquire some players that will help the team. 

Monday, March 9, 2020

Is Damiere Byrd the perfect free agent WR for the Eagles?

Heading into free agency the Eagles need a minimum of one wide receiver and could look to add two receivers this offseason. However with needs at WR, CB, FS, DE, and swing tackle, as well as money that will remain tied up in Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson, I expect Howie to go bargain shopping at WR in free agency. 

So what does Philly need in a wide receiver this offseason outside of being cheap? They need a younger player, someone they can sign to a multiyear deal and get them in their prime. They also desperately need to add speed to stretch the field both horizontally and vertically. They would also likely want someone who is versatile enough to play inside or outside. 

Looking through the list of free agents a name stuck in my head; Damiere Byrd. Byrd was a name I heard a couple times last season through the fantasy football world. Byrd is a guy heading into his 5th season, at 27 years old. While he has lacked the consistent NFL production of some guys available, he looked promising last season in a pass happy offense that spread out the defense regularly. Through 17 games and 3 years in Carolina he had just 12 receptions for 129 yards and 2 tds. He ran 1 time for 12 yards. The majority of his value came in the return game. Then he signed in Arizona, with Kyler Murray, and Kliff Kingsbury. Through 11 games with 3 starts he caught 32 passes for 359 yards and 1 td. He was targeted 46 times, with 36 of those deemed as catchable balls, but he was credited with only 2 drops working out to a very respectable 83% catch rate. Something that surprised me was his snap share, a 5'9 164 lb receiver would typically be used heavily in the slot, but just 4.9% of his snaps came from the slot. Which could be from the move to use Fitzgerald and Kirk in the slot. The main reason I want this guy? Speed and 4.28 at his pro day, while his catch rate in college scares me, his yards per reception is the reason I feel he fits what the Eagles are looking for perfectly. In four years he never averaged under 15.4 yards per reception, and managed big plays in the run game as well with 22 carries for 101 yards or 6.4 yards per carry. I think Byrd can be like a poor man's Tyreek Hill in the right offense. Use him out wide or in the slot, or on jet sweeps and end arounds, or even in the return game. This guy compared favorably to DeSean Jackson coming out of college so having him on our roster would give us an option for that role when Jackson inevitably misses time. In the mean time he can compete for snaps as the second or third WR. He is someone I would trust to step up as a starter when needed, he had some productive games toward the end of last season.