As it sat when Brady announced he was leaving New England the team had just two qbs under contract. 2019 4th round pick Jarrett Stidham, and veteran Cody Kessler. Not exactly an awe inspiring group considering the fact that the Patriots have had one of the most stable qb positions in the league for the last 30 years. Reports are that the team likes Stidham, and his predraft assessment was that of a player that could develop into a starter in the NFL with the right coaching. Let's take a look at his draft profile and touch on his perceived strengths and weaknesses after 3 seasons as a qb in college. He was viewed to have adequate size and strength, above average mobility, known to have the ability to decipher defenses with personal reads, makes good decisions while running a pro system. As evidenced by his above 60% rate his entire college career. His weaknesses seem to stem primarily from his disappointing 2018 campaign in which he seemed to look antsy in the pocket, lacked confidence, developed inconsistencies in his presnap reads, started to hold onto the ball too long, and looked to tuck and run too much. However that was before spending a year watching Tom Brady play, and learning under Josh McDaniels. Spending time in a role where you can hone your craft after having a down year would likely be the perfect reset for a guy who desperately needed one. Perhaps he comes out and truly seizes this job in his second season and the Patriots continue their unprecedented security at the position into a 4th decade.
After Brady officially signed with Tampa, and Rivers officially signed with Indy, Indy cut former Patriot qb Brian Hoyer who they signed for a third stint with the team. Barring an unforeseen addition of a veteran I expect Hoyer to serve as the top backup behind Stidham if he starts. Hoyer knows this offense extremely well, and can help coach up the younger Stidham. This was a smart move in an offseason that may not include mini camps, otas, and perhaps even have a shortened training camp.
Cody Kessler is their current third string qb. This guy is a former 3rd round pick for the Browns. He has bounced around since leaving Cleveland. Heading into his 5th season on his 4th team he has played in 17 games completing 224 of 349 passes Or 64.2% for 2,215 yards 8 tds and 5 ints adding 31 carries for 140 yards. He is an extremely solid third string qb and I expect him to stay on the roster. The Patriots signed him prior to 2019 and kept him instead of Hoyer so there is a chance he stays and Hoyer goes if another veteran is signed. Kessler is still relatively young and could develop a long term nfl career as a backup but I doubt he is viewed as a starter at this point. I see him as kind if a less mobile Case Keenum.
When you look at the current free agent market and trade market you still have notable names available. Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Joe Flacco are all still out there to be had, with lesser names like Mike Glennon, Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Moore, Josh McCown, and Geno Smith also out there. Many people speculated about a trade for Andy Dalton because of his status as a relatively steady starter, he may not be the best option but there has been no rumors about a trade being talked about.
Recently there have been reports that due to the Patriots cap situation they can't really afford to even sign or trade for a qb. Currently despite paying the players on their roster just north of $177 million in total they have just over $700,000 in cap space...you read that right. $700,000 to sign rookies, which basically means you can expect at least one or two more expensive veterans cut or restructured just to sign the draft picks. Let alone any free agents. The sad part is former players Tom Brady ($13.1 million), Antonio Brown ($4.75 million), Stephen Gostkowski ($3.2 million), Michael Bennett ($2 million), Duron Harmon ($1.25 million), Duke Dawson ($765,000), and Mike Pennell ($255,000) account for just under $26 million in dead cap.
Obviously there are always ways of freeing up cap space, item number 1 is a long term deal or a trade of Joe Thuney who currently accounts for $14.78 million in cap space on the franchise tag. I think you could get him closer to a cap hit of $11 million with a 4-5 year extension possibly even lower cap number depending on how the contract is structured. Two other moves would be to cut or trade Mohammed Sanu, who would result in $0 dead cap and free up $6.5 million in cap space, while restricting or trading Donta Hightower could free up around $6.5 million as well. However then these players have to be replaced as well. However if you look at 2021 the Patriots look to be flush with cap space at $110 million but have 37 impending free agents so there is a lot of extension work that could work to free up more space and solidify the core of the team going forward but the more I look at the financial situation the more I think it is highly unlikely the Patriots go with a veteran starter in 2020. They will likely let Stidham or a rookie sink or swim, go into 2021 with a presumably high draft pick or a franchise qb already in place, and a bunch of cap space. Primed for a rebuild of their dynasty.
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