Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Jets would be insane to trade Jamal Adams

Jamal Adams is a former first round pick that has panned out exactly like a team would hope when he was drafted. He has developed into one of the best in the box safeties in the NFL. So why is there trade talk surrounding him? 

The situation all began when the Jets and Adams started talking contract extension. So far the Jets haven't made a reasonable offer to Adams which has made him feel insulted which I can understand but at the same time this is a guy headed into his 4th season, with a team option for a 5th year at a team friendly $9,860,000. Up from a total earnings of just over $7 million last season. However this still places him at half the going rate for a top 5 NFL safety. There are 11 safeties making over $11 million next season, while 16 players make $7 million or more. When you look at the list of names at the top it becomes clear pretty quick Adams deserves this distinction. 

Eddie Jackson is the highest paid at $14.6 million per season. He was signed to an extension after his 3rd season but wasn't a first round pick so he was under team control for just 2020 and would have been likely hit with the franchise tag in 2020 anyway. This move might be the exact reason Adams is pushing for an extension, same draft class. He signed this extension earlier this offseason making him the new highest paid safety.

Kevin Byard makes $14.1 million per season. He signed this extension prior to the 2019 season and was at the time the highest paid safety in the NFL until Jackson upped the ante. Byard is the prototypical ball hawk safety with 37 pass deflections, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 sacks, and 17 ints in just 4 years. He deserves every penny of what he was signed for.

Tyran Mathieu aka the honey badger is another cover first stop the run second safety. He is a former slot cornerback who moved to safety to move him around the field which has dramatically affected his career in a positive manner. At $14 million a year he is on his third NFL contract. 

Landon Collins is the only guy on this list that is a true strong safety. Collins was a free agent last season making the leap from the Giants to the Redskins after they offered him $14 million per year on average. He happily took it but there are questions about the viability of a true in the box safety at this cap hit. Pass coverage oriented safeties tend to earn more than those who are essentially glorified linebackers like Collins. 

The fifth highest paid safety is Earl Thomas who signed with Baltimore after a very rough ending to his stay in Seattle. He managed to get $13.75 million a year on average from Baltimore and he deserves it. Thomas is a hybrid who can play both roles at safety he can line up in the box or as a single high safety or even line up in man coverage with backs and tight ends. He might be the most versatile guy on this list..

However how does Adams stack up? The reality is Collins is his only comparison on this list being that Adams does the bulk of his work in the box. With that being said Adams is as valuable as they come in terms of box safeties. After 3 seasons he has missed just 2 games, racked up 266 tackles, 12 sacks, 25 pass deflections, 2 interceptions, 6 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries and 2 defensive touchdowns. He isn't the type of turnover machine Byard is or the hybrid CB/S Mathieu is but he is more valuable than Collins in my eyes due to his ability to rush the passer. 12 sacks in 3 years is unheard of for a defensive back. But that's the beauty of Adams' skillset he could play LB fulltime and still be a probowl level player. Instead he is a 6'1 215 lb safety that put up 18 reps in the bench press at the combine and ran a 4.56 40. He may leave something to be desired in coverage but for anything he may lack in coverage he makes up in pass rush ability. It's no wonder a team like Dallas wants him, when his 6.5 sacks in 2019 would have placed him second on the team. Behind only Robert Quinn who just signed with Chicago. 

As I mentioned above there is logic involved with extending Adams now, before he plays yet another stellar season and is now headed into 2021 on the last year of his deal. Extending Adams now, could actually save the team money long term when the salary cap continues to rise, and contracts continue to go up and up every year. So right now $15 million is probably the number to make him happy, but two years from now? That number could be $18 million a year, especially after the team left him to make around $7 million in 2020. Another factor that should make this an easy decision to resign him now is the fact that Sam Darnold is in his 3rd year in 2020, and consequently his 4th year in 2021. Meaning at that point the team will have only the 5th year option left at their disposal to keep Darnold on the team before an inevitability large extension comes for the QB. So saving any money on the back end of the Adams deal will actually help you come negotiation time with Darnold. If I am the Jets I offer him a 5 year $65 million dollar deal total. $13.5 yearly salary, and a $12.5 million signing bonus. You lock up Adams until his age 30 season, meaning you keep arguably your best defensive player on the roster and can now focus on an extension with Darnold sooner rather than later to once again save yourself money long term. With Adams in place until 2024 at least you can turn your focus to keeping a balanced roster, and you keep a veteran leader on your defense. 

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