Rams Running backs

Cut. Just like that Todd Gurley the former workhorse running back for the L.A. Rams over the last 5 seasons, was released. He had signed the largest deal of any running back in the league just a couple seasons ago. However due to reoccurring issues with his knee the Rams decided it was better to move on then watch the condition of his knee worsen over the next season or two to the point where retirement was imminent. Somehow very quietly they invested a second round pick at the position to help fill Gurley's shoes. 

Cam Akers was a three year contributor at Florida State. Joining the team as a 5'10 215 lb running back in 2017 he managed to command the primary ball carrier role right out of the box. He carried the ball 194 times for 1,025 yards, 7 tds adding 116 yards and 1 td through the air. He also threw 1 pass, which he completed for a 47 yard gain. Not bad for a freshman, a total of 211 touches for 1,188 yards and 8 tds. He followed up with a sophomore season that saw him have a bit of a down year. He played in 12 games but took just 161 carries for 706 yards, and 6 tds. He added 23 receptions for 145 yards and 2 tds. He attempted a pass that fell incomplete and returned 1 kick for 15 yards. Then came his break out year. In 2019 he was force fed 231 carries for 1,144 yards and 14 tds, the team also saw it fit to throw to him more resulting in 30 receptions for 225 yards and 4 tds, with all that success why not have him throw it more too? He threw 6 passes completing 4 for another 50 yards. Akers displayed an ability to be a bell cow back, and as a junior displayed versatility to help in the passing game as well. He will likely split carries in L.A. but I would expect him to still be the primary ball carrier in 2020. 

Darrell Henderson is likely going to be the second guy off the bench. At 5'8 208 lbs he is your typical 3rd down back. The exact role the Rams will ask of him. He will likely come in during passing situations. His college career shows an explosive player with the ability to find the endzone anytime he touches the ball. He was responsible for 46 touchdowns in college. 36 tds on the ground, 8 on receptions, 1 passing td, and 1 kick return td. This man had a career average of 8.2 yards per carry, and 8.7 yards per reception on 494 touches, incredibly impressive. 

Malcolm Brown is a former undrafted free agent and the veteran of the group. He is headed into his 6th season with the Rams and is one of those rotational guys for the team that is always solid, but rarely dominant on the field. Through 5 seasons he has 197 carries for 769 yards and 6 tds, adding 20 receptions for 165 yards and 1 td. It wasn't until 2017 the team started to really rely on him to contribute. They have handed him 43 carries or more the last 3 seasons. In each season he 200 yards but his most efficient season yards per carry wise was 2018 when he received the fewest carries. In 2019 however despite a pedestrian yards per carry average of just 3.7, he managed 69 carries for 255 yards and 5 tds and produced a 1st down about 1/4 of his carries. He adds very little value in the passing game which is why I believe Akers will be first off of the bench, Brown may wind up as the short yardage and goal line back if he can continue to produce first downs and touchdowns when called upon. However due to his limitations Darrell Henderson will also get every opportunity to prove Brown should be the 3rd option. 

John Kelly will try and fight his way into the rotation as well but has spent the bulk of his NFL and college career as a depth player. A guy who can produce slightly above average numbers, but has never really been asked to carry the load. However he showed that he is a decent receiver in his junior year of college with 37 receptions. Although he had just 371 touches in college the Rams are confident in his ability and Sean McVay even said he believes he is a starting caliber back at the NFL level. High praise for a guy who has spent the last 5 years primarily backing up others.

Despite being a pass happy team, after recent offseason moves, and the emergence of certain players on the roster I believe we might see an uptick in 12 personnel alignments from the Rams offense. With Todd Gurley's home run threat gone from the backfield, Brandin Cooks now in Houston, along with the emergence of Gerald Everett behind Tyler Higbee last year will likely push the team to use this formation or a version of it more often. Quite honestly I expect Gerald Everett's 39% snap count last season to go dramatically up, his athleticism and size lends itself to more of an H-back or move tight end. Seeing him in the backfield more in 2020 should be expected. 

Patrick Mahomes in KC until 2031

We all knew it was coming, we all knew it would break records, but I dont think anyone had any idea that the Chiefs and Mahomes were working on what would amount to a 10 year EXTENSION worth $450 million, let alone have it signed prior to the 2020 season which means he is now under team control for the next 12 seasons for a total of just under $480 million. This broke records but it somehow still amounts to a contract that both sides can be happy about, and a deal that in no more than 3 seasons will look like a bargain. Please allow me to explain.

First of all I want to touch on the details of this signing. The main caveat to look at here is the fact that this deal does not replace the last 2 years of his rookie deal, it simply tracks on 10 more years. This is incredibly important in the grand scheme of things because it keeps Mahomes relatively cheap for the next two seasons which buys the team time to find the cap space to stomach that new deal. In 2020 Mahomes will cost the Chiefs around $5.5 million, before it escalates to $24,837,000 in 2021 under the 5th year of his rookie deal. Then in 2022 his extension kicks in. 

If you take a look at the quarterbacks nearing the end of their current deals it becomes apparent the qb market is going to be reset several more times over the next two years. 

Dak Prescott is going to be the next deal I would expect to come down. He is currently signed to the franchise tag which will pay him $31,409,000. He is rumored to be seeking an extension worth at least $40 million a year. 

Phillip Rivers just signed a 1 year deal with Indy that could position him to sign one last big money deal in 2021. Considering he signed what will amount to a bargain at $25 million per year. If he comes out of 2020 having passed for over 4,000 yards, 27 tds and thrown less than 20 ints we can expect him to join the mid to high $30 million club. 

A lot would have to happen but Jameis Winston and Mitchel Trubisky are both available for free agency in 2021 as well. Given the right coach, and right 2020 statistics there is a chance one of these guys joins that club as well.

In 2022 free agency you have a larger selection assuming any of these guys actually hit the market:

Drew Brees his current deal is paying him north of $25 million a year but not by enough to expect him to make the jump again. Throughout his career he has had a few years of over $30 million in salary. 

Tom Brady-Always the team first guy I wouldn't be shocked to see him ink one last short term deal worth a lot per year just to cross off the one thing he has not accomplished during his career being the highest paid qb. He signed a 2 year $50 million fully guaranteed deal with Tampa this offseason. 

Big Ben Roethlisberger, until a restructuring following a season ending injury, was headed toward a $34 million salary in 2020-2021. He signed a 2 year $68 million extension last offseason. 

Taysom Hill- He could be the most likely candidate if Brees retires. Hill is basically the 3rd string qb currently but signed a 2 year contract worth up to $22 million. Payton is the coach who has believed in him to this point, and could be the one championing him as the heir apparent to Drew Brees in New Orleans. It wouldnt shock me to see the Saints hand him $35 million a year + if he replaces Brees in the next year or two and plays lights out. 

DeShaun Watson-He will be the qb to break the bank in 2022 if the Texans don't sign him sooner. He will be the main qb to watch outside of Prescott who is likely to get a deal in the $40 million per year range. If I were him I would push the issue in Houston to the fullest extent. O'Brien is an erratic GM and you will want some security. 

My point in bringing up these salaries is the fact that ultimately in 2 years Mahomes might be the highest paid qb in the league but it won't be by the nearly $15 million margin it currently looks like. A lot of his money is guaranteed and will allow the team to stretch the cap hit out even further over time. 

Rashod Berry what is he at the NFL level?

Rashod Berry is one of the more interesting undrafted players in the NFL right now, and his versatility might be his greatest asset especially being that he just landed on the Patriots. One of the few teams in the NFL that isn't against using a 2 way player if the situation calls for it. 

Whether it was the legendary td catches by Mike Vrabel, Troy Brown playing WR and DB, Vince Wilfork as a FB, this team has always pushed the envelope, and in turn given their players ways to succeed. That's why Berry intrigues me so much. Berry graduated high school, in Lorain, Ohio as a tight end and defensive end. He left high school with a game for the ages. He caught 3 touchdowns and recorded a sack on defense. 

He would ultimately commit to Ohio State where he spent his redshirt freshman season training as a tight end. The position most believed he should stick with after coming into his own as a receiver as a senior in Lorain. However after the 2015 season, the Buckeyes decided they needed a third string pass rusher more than they needed a third string tight end and asked Berry to move fulltime to weak side defensive end. A position he was familiar with but had taken a year away from to focus on tight end. He would appear in 10 games none as a starter, and put up fairly forgettable stats 7 tackles spread through 5 games. Heading into his third season he was moved BACK to tight end as the number two tight end. A spot he was finally allowed to focus on the next three seasons. He would go on to log catches in 12 games over the next 3 years for totals of 17 receptions for 198 yards and 4 tds. The former basketball player and two way football star then turned his attention to the draft hoping to hear his name called. 

Heading into the 2020 draft Berry had arguably been held back by his college coaches being asked to swap positions two separate times in 3 seasons. Had we been talking about a 5th year senior tight end with 4 years of playing experience under his belt, the results may have been different. However he walked into the draft not even ranked by Walter Football at either of his collegiate positions. Due in part to this he was not invited to the combine. He further was hurt by prodays being cancelled. He never got the chance to display his incredible athleticism in numbers which seem to be increasingly important to teams as years go by. 

Ultimately Berry went undrafted but landed on a team who will find where his NFL fit is. Some believe due to their depth at tight end his future is on defense, a thought that was aided by Berry calling himself an outside linebacker on his Twitter bio. A switch to outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense for the 6'4 263 lb former tight end/defensive end isn't all that unnatural of a task for him. He showed at times he was an overly athletic down lineman in college and was regarded as dangerous as a pass rusher due to his quick first step, and his speed off the edge. His background as a tight end can only help him in coverage when asked to drop back, he will have a more complete knowledge of routes based off of first hand experience running them himself. His immediate future might be on the practice squad in 2020 unless he can demonstrate the prowess at a new position to be counted on as depth there and play on special teams. But this IS the Patriots we are talking about, keeping a guy who is as versatile as Berry on the game day roster might peak the interest of the coaching staff. You never know we could be seeing him doing his best Mike Vrabel impersonation in an endzone near you in 2020. 

Patriots tight end situation

The Patriots have had one of the oddest offseasons when it comes to their tight end position in recent memory. When you look at the entire scope of the position it's almost comical how much turnover the team has had in two seasons. 

This all started last year when All World tight end Rob Gronkowski decided to (temporarily) retire after 9 seasons that saw him play in 115 of a possible 144 games he caught 521 passes for 7,861 yards 15.1 per reception, 79 touchdowns, and added a 2 yard carry for a td. Gronk stepped away for just one season. But returned only to be traded away for a 4th round pick after his hiatus. 

When Gronk retired the Patriots cycled through a large list of tight ends:

Austin Seferian-Jenkins-Signed in April, which ultimately led the team to trade away Hollister. When Watson returned ASJ had shown he was not ready to return to the NFL, and was released in June. 

Benjamin Watson-returned from retirement for the 2019 season, began the year with a 4 year suspension for a banned substance he took shortly after his first retirement. He returned from suspension only to be released, then resigned, his stay with the Patriots lasted 10 games. He decided to hang it up again this offseason.

Matt LaCosse signed from Denver 2019 after 4 years bouncing around on the bottom of rosters. 

Jacob Hollister-Traded to Seattle, before developing a larger role within their offense. 

Andrew Beck-Listed as a FB/TE he played as a tight end primarily. He ultimately was released in August and Signed off waivers by Denver where he displayed some athletic ability prior to a season ending injury. 

Lance Kendricks-Signed away from the Rams to compete for the starting job. Ultimately wound up suspended, and released 2 months after being signed before landing in L.A. with the Chargers. 

Eric Saubert- A former mid round pick by Atlanta, the Patriots traded for him in an effort to throw darts hoping one stuck. Alas, Saubert wasnt the guy and lasted just 18 days before being cut. He landed on the Raiders practice squad before being signed by the Bears land of the forgotten tight ends. 

Heading into 2020 offseason the Patriots have lost Ben Watson and James Develin to retirement. Gronk came back only to be traded to the Bucs to reunite with Brady. 

The Patriots retained Matt LaCosse, Ryan Izzo, and Jake Burt from the 2019 depth chart to compete with two third round picks used in the 2020 draft. 

The first third round pick was used on 6'3 279 lb Devin Asiasi from UCLA. Despite his size he was not regarded as a very good blocker but however was regarded as a better athlete and route runner than one would expect. He projects as the future number 1 option in the receiving game if he can beat out the veterans at the position. 

They traded back into the 3rd round to draft Dalton Keene. Although Keene is 6'4 258 lbs roughly 20 lbs lighter than Asiasi he is regarded as a better blocker. After graduating high school as a running back having just put up 171 carries for 1,175 rushing yards and 18 tds. He was very technically sound committing very few penalties, and proved reliable after starting 38 games straight. However he is not nearly as polished as a receiver and would need to develop his hands and route running more before being a starter. However he could make Danny Vitale, and Jakob Johnson expendable if he proves to be a viable option in the backfield. 

Danny Vitale is a true fullback. He plays special teams, and blocks. He has recorded some receptions, and a couple carries but isn't an offensive threat in the slightest. He is one of those solid players that fills a set role. He will compete with incumbent Jakob Johnson.

Jakob Johnson will compete with Vitale but holds a dramatic upper hand with a roster exemption for being an International player. The Patriots gambled last season by not designating him as such so they could promote him to the active roster if needed. Ultimately Develin suffered what ended up being a career ending injury and Johnson was activated and played in a game before being injured himself and landing on IR. My hunch is with him being designated as an IPP player this year the Patriots will likely try to sneak him on the practice squad once again. This time in an effort to groom him for 2021. 

When I look at their roster as a whole I don't see them carrying more than 5 players between tight end and fullback, with a minimum of 1 player from this group on the practice squad. 

Looking at the group as a whole my expectation would be that they will keep 

Asiasi 

Keene

LaCosse

Ryan Izzo 

Danny Vitale 

I believe Asiasi and Lacosse will be the number and 2 targets at the position respectively although by the end of the season it wouldnt surprise me to see Keene pushing both LaCosse and Vitale for playing time. The Patriots love versatile players so having a guy like Keene who can act as a second tight end or as a fullback in the backfield who is a legitimate running threat, is an asset they will not hesitate to use more as he gets acclimated to the playbook. Izzo hangs on due to his youth, having just been drafted in 2018, he managed to catch 6 passes last year for 114 yards and 1 td after heading into the season buried on the depth chart. He will also make a lot of fans in the Patriots coaching staff because he is a very willing and able blocker who believes that is more important to perfect than catching passes. Honestly if I am a New England coach I encourage this guy to start learning how to longsnap as well. Joe Cardona is only 28 years old and signed for 2 more seasons but Izzo is 24 years old, and a bottom of the roster type player who could benefit from added value on special teams. He could potentially parlay that skill into a long career in the NFL.