First of all I want to touch on the details of this signing. The main caveat to look at here is the fact that this deal does not replace the last 2 years of his rookie deal, it simply tracks on 10 more years. This is incredibly important in the grand scheme of things because it keeps Mahomes relatively cheap for the next two seasons which buys the team time to find the cap space to stomach that new deal. In 2020 Mahomes will cost the Chiefs around $5.5 million, before it escalates to $24,837,000 in 2021 under the 5th year of his rookie deal. Then in 2022 his extension kicks in.
If you take a look at the quarterbacks nearing the end of their current deals it becomes apparent the qb market is going to be reset several more times over the next two years.
Dak Prescott is going to be the next deal I would expect to come down. He is currently signed to the franchise tag which will pay him $31,409,000. He is rumored to be seeking an extension worth at least $40 million a year.
Phillip Rivers just signed a 1 year deal with Indy that could position him to sign one last big money deal in 2021. Considering he signed what will amount to a bargain at $25 million per year. If he comes out of 2020 having passed for over 4,000 yards, 27 tds and thrown less than 20 ints we can expect him to join the mid to high $30 million club.
A lot would have to happen but Jameis Winston and Mitchel Trubisky are both available for free agency in 2021 as well. Given the right coach, and right 2020 statistics there is a chance one of these guys joins that club as well.
In 2022 free agency you have a larger selection assuming any of these guys actually hit the market:
Drew Brees his current deal is paying him north of $25 million a year but not by enough to expect him to make the jump again. Throughout his career he has had a few years of over $30 million in salary.
Tom Brady-Always the team first guy I wouldn't be shocked to see him ink one last short term deal worth a lot per year just to cross off the one thing he has not accomplished during his career being the highest paid qb. He signed a 2 year $50 million fully guaranteed deal with Tampa this offseason.
Big Ben Roethlisberger, until a restructuring following a season ending injury, was headed toward a $34 million salary in 2020-2021. He signed a 2 year $68 million extension last offseason.
Taysom Hill- He could be the most likely candidate if Brees retires. Hill is basically the 3rd string qb currently but signed a 2 year contract worth up to $22 million. Payton is the coach who has believed in him to this point, and could be the one championing him as the heir apparent to Drew Brees in New Orleans. It wouldnt shock me to see the Saints hand him $35 million a year + if he replaces Brees in the next year or two and plays lights out.
DeShaun Watson-He will be the qb to break the bank in 2022 if the Texans don't sign him sooner. He will be the main qb to watch outside of Prescott who is likely to get a deal in the $40 million per year range. If I were him I would push the issue in Houston to the fullest extent. O'Brien is an erratic GM and you will want some security.
My point in bringing up these salaries is the fact that ultimately in 2 years Mahomes might be the highest paid qb in the league but it won't be by the nearly $15 million margin it currently looks like. A lot of his money is guaranteed and will allow the team to stretch the cap hit out even further over time.
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