Monday, July 26, 2021

Dede Westbrook signs with Minnesota

Former Jacksonville Jaguars receiver DeDe Westbrook has decided to turn into the Florida heat for the Minnesota cold, but will it actually turn out to be the best move for his NFL career? Let's look into it. 

Westbrook pulled what I can only say was a bold move prior to draft day. He declined an invitation to the Senior Bowl, and attended the combine but declined to do any drills. The 5'11 178 receiver could have likely helped his draft grades had he performed in either event. Ultimately Westbrook was drafted in round 4 with pick 110 by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2017. He was drafted in an effort to build a good group of weapons around former first round pick Blake Bortles. When he was drafted the Jaguars had Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Marquise Lee, and Keelan Cole ahead of him on the depth chart. However things change quickly Robinson was hurt in week 1 and missed the following 15 games. If not for landing on injured reserve himself Westbrook likely would have also seen much more action as a rookie. Due to this Westbrook saw the field in 7 games and started 5 games. He was targeted 51 times catching 27 passes for 339 yards and 1 td as a rookie. This was enough for the Jaguars to make some decisions based off of his performance. 

In 2018 the Jaguars decided Westbrook and Marquise Lee would be the new focal point of their offense, allowing Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns to leave in free agency with Robinson continuing to excell with the Bears, and Hurns falling off the map as a starter. Due to injuries once again, this time to Marquise Lee who would miss all of 2018 due to a knee injury, Westbrook was suddenly the top target on offense. He was targeted over 100 times in the passing game catching 66 passes for 717 yards and 5 tds however he also added 9 carries for 98 yards, 1 incomplete passing attempt, 19 punt returns for 256 yards and 1 td, and 3 kick returns for 36 yards as well it's almost as if the Jaguars were force feeding Westbrook rather than turn to Donte Moncrief, or Keelan Cole more often. These guys were clearly settled in as the number 2 and 3 options in the passing game allowing Westbrook to put up 1,107 all purpose yards in just his second season. It seemed on the surface like Westbrook had earned the confidence of Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett. 

In 2019 there were high hopes for the Jaguars offense. They had released Blake Bortles and signed Nick Foles just 1 year removed from leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory. They also drafted Gardner Minshew as a developmental backup behind Foles. The Jaguars had moved on from Donte Moncrief, instead bringing in former Chief Chris Conley, and banking on the return of Marquise Lee to boost the receiving game. Instead what happened was Nick Foles got hurt with Gardner Minshew taking over and playing well, DJ Chark seemingly from nowhere stole the show as the number 1 receiver with Westbrook settling in as the number 2 option. Conley wound up being 3rd in total targets, with Keelan Cole bringing up the 4th spot, and Lee basically being phased out after more injury issues. Westbrook and Chark both were targetted over 100 times with Chark edging out Westbrook with 118 to his 101. Westbrook was able to turn these targets into just 66 receptions for 660 yards and 3 tds adding 5 carries for 27 yards, and 23 punt returns for 123 yards falling quite a bit short of his 2018 totals with just 810 total yards. 

In 2020 the Jaguars had again shed some veteran presence at wide receiver with Marquise Lee moving on but retained Cole, Westbrook, and Conley as the vets of the group. Westbrook was entering a contract year but had to watch as his team spent a 2nd round pick on Colorado receiver Laviska Schenault to play second fiddle to DJ Chark who had topped 1,000 yards in 2019, this meant Westbrook would be seeing significantly less targets especially being that it was expected that Cole, and Conley would get reps as the WR3 as well. When the final roster was announced something else became apparent Westbrook was the only wide receiver standing under 6'1. Despite thoughts Westbrook would be the third target it became apparent quickly that he was in fact the 5th target with Schensult, Cole, Conley getting way more time on the field than Westbrook. Things would only get worse when in week 7 Westbrook tore his ACL, ending his season with just 1 target, 1 reception for 4 yards, 4 kick returns for 89 yards, and 4 punt returns for 44 yards and appeared in just 2 games pretty much signaling that the team would be moving on in 2021. 

Westbrook hit the market having tore his ACL midway through the season so it was really no surprise to anyone involved when it took a while for him to find his next team. Despite interest from Cincinnati (how many receivers do they need?), Seattle, and some KC players recruiting him he landed in Minnesota which might prove to be his best chance to see the field and succeed anyway. In 2020 the 3rd receiver for the Vikings was Chad Beebe a college free agent signed in 2018, with the 4th receiver being Olabisi Johnson a 7th round pick in 2019. These guys had 30 targets for 20 receptions 201 yards and 2 tds, and 19 targets 14 receptions, for 189 yards. The signing if Westbrook indicates that they aren't sold on either of these guys living up to expectations as the third receiver in their offense. This offense is in a bit of a transition state.

Let me explain:
The Vikings under Mike Zimmer for the last two seasons have run a ton of two tight end sets thanks to having Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. on their roster. Rudolph has since been released meaning Smith will start with only Tyler Conklin behind him who is essentially a big bodied wide receiver anyway. Why does this matter for Westbrook? 

With an expected reduction in two tight end sets there stands to be two beneficiaries of this the fullback Cj Ham, and and the third receiver as their will inevitably be an increase in 3 wide receiver packages which in theory plays well for the run game to spread out the defense when you have a true dual threat RB. 

So I expect Westbrook if healthy to see somewhere in the range of 40-50 targets carving out of some of the targets that went to Beebe, and Johnson last season, as well as taking a good portion of those targets that would have gone to Rudolph. 

As if those facts weren't enough to leave him in a good situation for success, the quarterback position is. Kirk Cousins is easily the most consistent quarterback Westbrook has ever played with. Cousins is known for his accuracy and decision making but most importantly he is known for loving smaller slot receivers. He developed a rapport with Terry McLaurin, Jamison Crowder, Trey Quinn and others during his time in Washington so maybe this is Cousins getting to have a bit more say in the offense now that Kevin Stefanski is gone and Gary Kubiak are gone and Klint Kubiak his former QB coach is now his coordinator. Whatever the case may be I believe he will find success in Minnesota as their third receiver behind Jefferson, and Thielen and may even wind up being there when the team inevitably has to move on from Thielen. 



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